Kingscote Airport Business Case Appendices - Kangaroo Island ...

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTKangaroo Island Air Passenger DemandAppendix1. Model StructureThe Kangaroo Island Air Passenger Demand Model has been based upon statistics provided to PACby KIC & SATC. PAC has used these historical data, and built air passenger demand forecasts usinggrowth and share assumptions driven by other airports’ experience. PAC has assumed visitor and airpassenger growth under a variety of scenarios, using a ‘low‐medium‐high’ scenario set (as outlinedin the body of this Overview). From these forecasts, PAC has assessed the likely demand for airservices based on aircraft currently and likely to be in operation, both under monopoly operator aswell as competitive entry scenarios.The critical assessments in this Overview have been based on a ‘medium‐medium’ case, using thefollowing assumptions:Overall visitor growth: 2.9% per year, 2012‐2030Air passenger share of visitor demand: Rising from 12% to 30% of visitor movements by 2030Break‐even load factor for carriers serving Kangaroo Island: 70%Assumed primary aircraft: Saab 340 (Rex)Assumed competitor/new entry aircraft: ATR72 (Virgin Australia).Page| 11