Kingscote Airport Business Case Appendices - Kangaroo Island ...

Kangaroo Island Futures Authority Draft Economic Impact of Agriculture and TourismLow growth scenariosThe low growth scenario for the tourism and agricultural industries would deliver 2.6 per centgrowth over 8 years in both industries. For tourism it includes continuing to develop successfulinitiatives in marketing, increased adoption of technology and skilling in e commerce andgrowing efficiencies in the utilisation of existing infrastructure capacity amongst otherstrategies. Milestone development aimed at building capacity in transport (access) and thesupply of utilities will also be required. This study considers the potential in upgrading theKingscote Airport in the short to middle term as a partial response to meeting this need..For agriculture the low growth scenario requires a combination of low level improvement inthe four main potential drivers of economic growth, namely technical productivity (e.g.yield/hectare), operating costs (e.g. logistics), premium brand (e.g. Brand Kangaroo Island) andchange in land use (e.g. switch to more intensive production systems).Across both industries this growth would see an increase in Kangaroo Island gross regionalproduct (GRP) of about 10 per cent and full-time equivalent (fte) jobs growth of around 9 percent.Table ES1Economic impact of tourism and agriculture growth: low growth scenarioGross Regional ProductEmploymentRate of growth a(%/an)Increase by2019/20 ($m)Impact on KI b(%)Increase by2019/20 (fte)Impact on KI c(%)Tourism 2.6% 12.2 5.6% 107 4.6%Agriculture 2.6% 9.8 4.5% 103 4.4%Total - 22.0 10.1% 209 9.0%abcFor tourism it is the annual rate of growth of visitor expenditure and for agriculture it is the annual rate ofgrowth of farm gate gross value of production.KI gross regional product estimated to be $217 million in 2011/12 (Kangaroo Island RISE model).KI employment estimated to be 2,330 fte in 2011/12 (Kangaroo Island RISE model).Moderate growth scenariosThe moderate growth scenario for tourism and agriculture industries would deliver annualaverage growth over eight years of 4.9 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively. The need formilestone developments becomes more critical for this scenario as greater pressure is placedon infrastructure for example. As previously stated, this study considers the potential inupgrading the Kingscote Airport in the short to middle term to illustrate this point.For tourism, this is the rate of growth that is required to meet the target of $180m of visitorexpenditure set in South Australia’s Strategic Plan (SASP).Across both industries this growth would see an increase in Kangaroo Island GRP of almost 22per cent and fte jobs growth of around 17 per cent.e c o n s e a r c hPage| vii