Kingscote Airport Business Case Appendices - Kangaroo Island ...

Kangaroo Island Futures Authority Draft Economic Impact of Agriculture and TourismTable ES2Economic impact of tourism and agriculture growth: moderate growth scenarioGross Regional ProductEmploymentRate of growth a(%/an)Increase by2019/20 ($m)Impact on KI b(%)Increase by2019/20 (fte)Impact on KI c(%)Tourism 4.9% 24.4 11.3% 213 9.2%Agriculture 4.5% 22.3 10.3% 181 7.8%Total - 46.8 21.6% 395 16.9%abcFor tourism it is the annual rate of growth of visitor expenditure and for agriculture it is the annual rate ofgrowth of farm gate gross value of production.KI gross regional product estimated to be $217 million in 2011/12 (Kangaroo Island RISE model).KI employment estimated to be 2,330 fte in 2011/12 (Kangaroo Island RISE model).High growth scenariosThe high growth scenario for the tourism and agricultural industries would deliver 7.9 per centgrowth over eight years in both industries. For both tourism and agriculture this level ofgrowth (83 per cent over the 8-year period) could be considered in line with the SA EconomicDevelopment Board’s target of doubling visitor expenditure and farm gate value of productionover the 8-year period.The aggregate impact of this growth would be an increase in the GRP of almost 40 per cent(above the 2011/12 level) and fte jobs growth of just under 29 per cent.Table ES3Economic impact of tourism and agriculture growth: moderate growth scenarioRate of growth a(%/an)Increase by2019/20 ($m)Impact on KI b(%)Increase by2019/20 (fte)Impact on KI c(%)Tourism 7.9% 49.4 22.8% 383 16.4%Agriculture 7.9% 36.6 16.9% 288 12.4%Total - 86.0 39.6% 671 28.8%abcFor tourism it is the annual rate of growth of visitor expenditure and for agriculture it is the annual rate ofgrowth of farm gate gross value of production.KI gross regional product estimated to be $217 million in 2011/12 (Kangaroo Island RISE model).KI employment estimated to be 2,330 fte in 2011/12 (Kangaroo Island RISE model).Realistic targetsGross Regional ProductEmploymentThe apparent level of alignment with policy and program priorities of key government agenciesand industry bodies along with the views expressed by the key stakeholders consulted suggestthat the targets outlined in this study may be realistic with a clear recognition of the need forplanning, development and implementation commitment from a range of stakeholders.Achieving the growth scenarios relies on delivering innovation such as technology andmanagement practice, concerted marketing effort, appropriate land use planning, investmentin milestone infrastructure development and the support of the broader community amongstother factors.By their nature the higher targets are more difficult to achieve given the need for integratedand timely milestone development and for a higher level of effectiveness in programs such asthe tourism ‘stay one more day’ program identified in the high growth tourism target.e c o n s e a r c hPage| viii