Scientific Concept of the National Cohort (status ... - Nationale Kohorte

A.6
A.6 Table Planned 6.4: Expected statistical counts analyses of non-cancer and statistical incident power cases considerations after 5, 10, 15 or 20 years of average
follow-up, for the total cohort (N=200,000) or the intensified sub-cohort (N=40,000).
Table 6.4: Expected counts of noncancer incident cases after 5, 10, 15, or 20 years of average
follow-up, for the total cohort (N=200,000) or the intensified subcohort (N=40,000).
Disease Data source
Myocardial
infarction
Stroke
Diabetes
Rheum.
arthritis
COPD
Heart
failure
Mortality
KORA Augsburg
Registry
MONICA/KORA
study
Erlangen and
Ludwigshafen
incidence rates
MONICA/KORA
study
Study of Health in
Pomerania
Norfolk Arthritis
Register
UK General
Practice
Database
Framingham
Heart study and
Rotterdam study
German Federal
Statistical Office
Expected cumulative incidence
at study level 1
5 yrs
(2022)
(200,000 subjects)
10 yrs
(2027)
Average follow-up duration (years)
178
Expected cumulative incidence
at study level 2
(40,000 subjects)
(+ expected corresponding calendar date)
15 yrs
(2032)
20 yrs
(2037)
5 yrs
(2022)
10 yrs
(2027)
15 yrs
(2032)
20 yrs
(2037)
1,700 4,400 7,300 10,000 350 870 1,500 2,100
2,400 5,800 9,400 13,000 480 1,200 1,900 2,500
1,600 4,300 7,500 11,000 310 860 1,500 2,200
5,800 13,000 21,000 28,000 1,200 2,700 4,200 5,600
7,700 19,000 31,000 41,000 1,600 3,800 6,100 8,100
250 590 940 1,300 50 120 190 250
2,300 5,800 9,700 13,000 460 1,160 1,900 2,700
1,600 4,600 8,200 12,000 320 920 1,700 2,400
4,600 14,000 26,000 47,000 910 2,700 5,300 9,300
figure 6.1: Expected recruitment scheme and accrual of follow-up time assuming uniform
speed of subjects recruited over a 5-year period for first and second visit and assuming 75% of
subjects recruited at first visit participate in the second visit.
200.000
150.000
numbers of subjects
2012
average follow-up time after the first visit
average follow-up time after the second visit
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Years