policymakers demonstrate

114 Christian Dustmann, Giovanni Facchini and Cora Signorotto
key issues where more research is needed both to foster our knowledge, as well
as to provide guidance for effective policy interventions. The review is carried
out from the perspective of the economics literature, but given the complexity
of the question we also refer to relevant studies carried out by demographers
and sociologists.
Following an initial description of the main stylized facts on population ageing,
migration and health in Section 3.2, the survey focuses on current demographic
developments and fertility trends among the migrant and native populations
in destination countries (Section 3.3) and on the length of the migration
spell (Section 3.4). We then review the main findings in the literature on the
fiscal effects of migration in European countries and the US (Section 3.5) and
describe the role that migration can play in addressing skill and labour shortages
(Section 3.6). Section 3.7 analyses the health care sector, focusing on shortages
of health care workers in European countries and the international migration
of health professionals. Finally, we present the main findings from the very
recent literature on amenity-driven migration of retirees from Northern European
countries towards Mediterranean coastal regions (Section 3.8). Section
3.9 summarizes our main conclusions and policy implications.
3.2 Main Stylized Facts
Europe’s population is ageing rapidly 2 and, as shown in Figure 3.1, the most
recent forecasts suggest that the phenomenon is likely to become more severe
over the next 45 years (see European Commission, 2014a). By 2060, less than
57 per cent of the population is expected to belong to the economically active
group.
There are two main reasons why a population ages. First, a decline in overall
fertility rates. Second, an increase in life expectancy. Considering the 28 current
members of the EU, average total fertility rates were on a steady downward path
over the period from 1960 to 2005. While in 1960 the average European woman
was expected to give birth to 2.67 children, this number dropped to only 1.49
children by 2005. There was a slight improvement in total fertility over the last
decade, with fertility reaching 1.56 by 2012. This basic trend conceals important
differences across countries, however. For instance, while fertility rates in
Ireland have been consistently higher than in the rest of the EU, countries like
Portugal or Spain had substantially higher fertility rates than the EU average in
the 1960s, 1970s and even 1980s, but then saw them drop below the EU average
starting in 1990. Other countries like France have been able, through a series of
targeted policies, to maintain fertility rates close to the replacement rate of 2.1
children per woman (see Figure 3.2). The most recent forecasts indicate that we
should expect a slight improvement over the next 45 years, with total fertility