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Population, Migration, Ageing and Health: A Survey 117 9 3 Health care spending (% GDP) 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 6 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Health spending in LTC spending (%GDP) 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 EU28 EU28 Figure 3.4 Projections of health care and long-term care spending as percentage of GDP for EU28 countries (European Commission, 2015, pp. 265, 271). According to the most recent projections, 5 between 2013 and 2060 cumulated net inflows to the EU are expected to reach 55 million. The main destination countries will be Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain, with a forecasted cumulated net inflow of 15.5 million, 9.2 million, 7 million and 6.5 million migrants respectively (see European Commission, 2014a). Whether migrants help rejuvenate Western countries ultimately depends on their age structure and fertility behaviour. In the next section, we will review the main differences in fertility patterns among the migrant and native populations, and discuss the extent immigration represents a viable solution to the host countries’ ageing workforce. 3.3 Migration and Demographic Developments Migrants are typically younger than natives when they arrive, and in the short run they contribute to rejuvenating the host country’s labour supply. In the medium to long run, migrants will age as well, and new immigration will be required to counteract population ageing. One key factor determining to what extent the host country’s age structure is affected by immigration in the medium or long term is the relative fertility of the immigrant compared to the native population. To understand the importance of immigration in shaping future population dynamics, Table 3.1 (taken from Sobotka, 2008) displays the share of total births accounted for by immigrant women in eleven European countries. Almost all countries in the table have experienced a steady increase in the share of births to immigrant women since the mid-1990s. Southern European
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 2000000 1500000 Euro Area 1000000 –500000 European Union 500000 0 –1000000 Figure 3.5 Net migration flows, 1965–2013 (European Commission, 2014a, p. 14). Figures always refer to the same group of countries.
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Economics without Borders If treate
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University Printing House, Cambridg
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vi Contents 1.4.3 Reforming the Sta
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viii Contents 5.3 Approaches in Ind
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x Contents 9.3 The Trade-Off betwee
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xii Contents 12.4.4 Inequality of O
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Figures 1.1 Entry effects near and
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Tables 2.1 Chronology of EPL reform
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xx Foreword Another important facto
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Contributors roberto barcellan Euro
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Contributors xxv vigdis kvalheim No
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Introduction Richard Blundell, Este
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Introduction 3 2. Knowledge-based g
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Introduction 5 for innovation or th
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Introduction 7 burden was the polic
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Introduction 9 however, quite clear
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Introduction 11 extremely useful fo
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Introduction 13 An overarching them
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Introduction 15 involved). Another
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Introduction 17 proportion of rail
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Introduction 19 ‘macroeconomics i
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Introduction 21 private equity mark
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Introduction 23 such changes bear c
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Introduction 25 outlined, to draw s
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Introduction 27 Chapter 14 starts b
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1 Innovation and Growth: The Schump
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Innovation and Growth: The Schumpet
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Winners and Losers of Globalization
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Economic Approaches to Energy, Envi
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Regional Disparities and Efficient
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Skilled Cities and Efficient Urban
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10 Fiscal and Monetary Policies aft
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Fiscal and Monetary Policies after
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Country mean score 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6
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634 Index Diversified Cities, 385 D
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636 Index Native Population, 114, 1
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