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JUDGMENT INMANAGERIALDECISION MAKIN
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Dedicated toMHB: To Howard Raiffa,
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PREFACEBetween 1981 and 1983, one o
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ContentsChapter 1Introduction to Ma
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Contents ixOverestimating Your Val
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CHAPTERONEIntroduction to Manageria
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System 1 and System 2 Thinking 3di
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The Bounds of Human Rationality 5T
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Introduction to Judgmental Heuristi
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2. Are couples who marry under the
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An Outline of Things to Come 11who
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CHAPTERTWOCommon BiasesPlease read
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TABLE 2-1Chapter ProblemsCommon Bia
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Common Biases 17a. Drawing a red m
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Biases Emanating from the Availabil
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Biases Emanating from the Represent
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three flips of a coin or getting mo
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samples, scientists often grossly o
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Biases Emanating from the Represent
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Consider the following real-life sc
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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TABLE 2-2 Summary of the Twelve Bia
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TABLE 3-1Chapter ProblemsRespond to
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Bounded Awareness 45Problem 6. Wit
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After showing the video the first t
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- Page 77 and 78: Framing and the Irrationality of th
- Page 79 and 80: We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocerta
- Page 81 and 82: participants who were given Version
- Page 83 and 84: What’s It Worth to You? 71straig
- Page 85 and 86: The Value We Place on What We Own
- Page 87 and 88: Mental Accounting 75systematically
- Page 89 and 90: Do No Harm, the Omission Bias, and
- Page 91 and 92: Joint Versus Separate Preference Re
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- Page 95 and 96: Conclusion and Integration 83Given
- Page 97 and 98: When Emotion and Cognition Collide
- Page 99 and 100: The Impact of Temporal DifferencesW
- Page 101 and 102: When Emotion and Cognition Collide
- Page 103 and 104: Positive Illusions 91players or wi
- Page 105 and 106: Positive Illusions 93individual’
- Page 107 and 108: Self-Serving Reasoning 95attribute
- Page 109 and 110: Emotional Influences on Decision Ma
- Page 111: feedback on the decision not chosen
- Page 115 and 116: The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm
- Page 117 and 118: The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
- Page 119 and 120: The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
- Page 121 and 122: reasons. The first three classes of
- Page 123 and 124: Why Does Escalation Occur? 111In h
- Page 125 and 126: CHAPTERSEVENFairness and Ethics inD
- Page 127 and 128: Perceptions of Fairness 115underpe
- Page 129 and 130: Perceptions of Fairness 117include
- Page 131 and 132: Perceptions of Fairness 119in thes
- Page 133 and 134: These findings are consistent with
- Page 135 and 136: Bounded Ethicality 123within firms
- Page 137 and 138: Bounded Ethicality 125(Epley, Caru
- Page 139 and 140: Bounded Ethicality 127implicit des
- Page 141 and 142: Bounded Ethicality 129people. Inst
- Page 143 and 144: Bounded Ethicality 131The results
- Page 145 and 146: Bounded Ethicality 133played a pec
- Page 147 and 148: Conclusion 135the classic experime
- Page 149 and 150: Common Investment Mistakes 137to h
- Page 151 and 152: The Psychology of Poor Investment D
- Page 153 and 154: The Psychology of Poor Investment D
- Page 155 and 156: The Psychology of Poor Investment D
- Page 157 and 158: to taxes. From a tax perspective, w
- Page 159 and 160: Action Steps 147island have been l
- Page 161 and 162: choose them carefully. Some annuiti
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CHAPTERNINEMaking Rational Decision
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Together, these three sets of facts
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CLAIMING VALUE IN NEGOTIATIONConsid
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Creating Value in Negotiation 157I
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Creating Value in Negotiation 159c
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divided between negotiators. Yet, f
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The Tools of Value Creation 163The
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The Tools of Value Creation 165Typ
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Summary and Critique 167approach,
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academic programs, corporate battle
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view the negotiation with a positiv
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Overestimating Your Value in Negoti
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Self-Serving Biases in Negotiation
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Anchoring in Negotiations 177separ
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CHAPTERELEVENImproving Decision Mak
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Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis T
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Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis T
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Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis T
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Strategy 2: Acquire Expertise 187c
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STRATEGY 3: DEBIAS YOUR JUDGMENTDeb
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virtually everyone is subject to ju
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substantially better in the Acquiri
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Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Ot
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Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Ot
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Conclusion 199the decision-making
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References 201Badaracco, J. L., Jr
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References 203Bernoulli, D. (1738/
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References 205Dasgupta, N. (2004).
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References 207Gentner, D., Loewens
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References 209Pension design and s
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References 211Latane, B., & Darley
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References 213Messick, D. M., Moor
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References 215Nosek, B. A., Banaji
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References 217Sanfey, A. G., Rilli
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References 219Staw, B. M., & Ross,
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References 221Tversky, A., & Koehl
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IndexNote: Page numbers followed by
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Daly, H., 126Damasio, A. R., 85, 86
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Jordan, D. J., 146Joyce, E. J., 33J
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Rational thinkingbounds of, 4-6abou