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222 ReferencesWoloshin,S.,Schwartz,L.M.,Black,W.C.,&Welch,H.G.(1999).Women’s perceptions ofbreast cancer risk: How you ask matters. Medical Decision Making, 19(3), 221–229.Yates, J. F., & Carlson, B. W. (1986). Conjunction errors: Evidence for multiple judgment procedures,including ‘‘signed summation.’’Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes,37, 230–253.Yovel, G., & Kanwisher, N. (2005). The neural basis of the behavioral face-inversion effect. CurrentBiology, 15, 2256–2262.Zander, A. (1971). Motives and goals in groups. New York: Academic Press.Ziemba, S. (1995, November 10). American to United: Avoid bidding war carrier won’t draw firstin USAir fight. Chicago Tribune, p. B1.Zweig, J. (2000, August). Mutual competition: Are the new rivals to traditional funds a better bet?Money Magazine.
IndexNote: Page numbers followed by f indicate figures; those followed by t indicate tables; and those followed by n indicate notes.Abramson, L. Y., 96Acquiring a Company problem, 52,54–55, 56, 57, 186–187, 187f, 192Acquisitions, failures of, 61Acquisition utility, 71Active trading, investments and,145–147Adaptive role, of positive illusions,93–94Admissions, decisions about, 184Advisors, ethics of, 130–131Affect heuristic, 7, 9–10, 14, 85in employment interviews, 185fairness and, 121African Americans, implicit attitudestoward, 127–128Ager, J. W., 127Agreement, reaching, 153Ainslie, G., 85Airlines, mergers by, 107Airplane problem, 116–117Akerlof, G., 55Akerlof, G. A., 119Allison, S. T., 90Alloy, L. B., 96Alpert, M., 36Altruistic punishment, 122Ambady, N., 185American Airlines, 107Analogical reasoning, 191–193Anchoring, 9, 31–34, 142–143in negotiations, 176–177Anderson, C., 93Angelone, B. L., 48Anger, 96Annuities, for retirement, 148–149Appelman, A., 104Ariely, D., 19Art and Science of Negotiation, The(Raiffa), 178Arthur Andersen, ethics and, 122–123,131Asendorpf, J. B., 129Asian Disease Problem, 62, 63–64,81–82Assets, selecting for investment, 143Associations, codes of ethics of, 130Asymmetry, in negotiation, 176Attitudes, implicit, 127–129Auctionsbounded awareness in, 59–61classroom, 105–106winner’s curse in, 186Auditorsanchoring effect among, 33independence of, 131Availability heuristic, 7–8, 14biases from, 18–21ease of recall and, 18–20in employment interviews, 185event vividness and, 18–19in performance appraisals, 19retrievability of memories and,20–21Avoidance, of regret, 98–99Awarenessbounded, 6inattentional blindness and,46–48Axsom, D., 48Ayres, I., 46Babcock, L., 32, 82, 94, 174Badaracco, J. L., Jr., 135Bajaj, V., 108Balance theory, 190Balcetis, E., 95Ball, S. B., 57, 186Banaji, M. R., 96, 123, 124, 128, 135Banks, favors by, 126Banse, R., 129Barber, B. M., 139–140, 144, 145, 146,149Bargh, J. A., 127Bar-Hillel, M., 34Barings Bank, 110Barlas, S., 37Baron, J., 9, 58, 76, 77, 78, 191Barry, B., 81Baseballnegotiation in strike (1994),171–172Oakland Athletics transformationand, 179–180overestimating value in negotiationin, 172–173regression to the mean in playerbatting averages, 25–26Base rates, insensitivity to, 21–22Basketballcommitment to draft choices in, 104focusing illusion in, 49BATNA. See Best Alternative To aNegotiated Agreement (BATNA)Bauer, J. E., 84Baumeister, R. F., 93, 97Bazerman, M. H., 42, 45, 48, 52, 55,56, 57, 58, 59, 60n, 61, 75, 76, 79,80, 81, 85, 87, 91, 94, 96, 104,120, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128,130, 131, 132, 135, 140, 153, 159,160, 161, 164, 165, 170, 172, 173,174, 175, 183, 186, 192, 193Beane, B., 179–180Beattie, J., 9Bechara, A., 85, 86Becker, G. S., 82Beer, J. S., 93Behaviordiscounting applied to, 87–88economic judgments and, 114–116implicit attitudes as predictors of,129indirectly unethical, 132–133Behavioral decision research, 81–83,84. See also Framing; PreferencesBehavioral finance, 137–138Belsky, G., 143Benartzi, S., 143, 148Benefit, as utility, 63Benton, M. J., 133Benzoni, F. J., 127Bereby-Meyer, Y., 187, 192, 193Bernhard, H., 126Bernoulli, D., 63Beshears, J., 75Best Alternative To a NegotiatedAgreement (BATNA), 153, 155Betsbounded awareness and, 58creating value through, 159–160223
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JUDGMENT INMANAGERIALDECISION MAKIN
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Dedicated toMHB: To Howard Raiffa,
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PREFACEBetween 1981 and 1983, one o
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ContentsChapter 1Introduction to Ma
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Contents ixOverestimating Your Val
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CHAPTERONEIntroduction to Manageria
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System 1 and System 2 Thinking 3di
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The Bounds of Human Rationality 5T
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Introduction to Judgmental Heuristi
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2. Are couples who marry under the
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An Outline of Things to Come 11who
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CHAPTERTWOCommon BiasesPlease read
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TABLE 2-1Chapter ProblemsCommon Bia
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Common Biases 17a. Drawing a red m
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Biases Emanating from the Availabil
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Biases Emanating from the Represent
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three flips of a coin or getting mo
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samples, scientists often grossly o
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Biases Emanating from the Represent
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Consider the following real-life sc
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TABLE 2-2 Summary of the Twelve Bia
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TABLE 3-1Chapter ProblemsRespond to
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Bounded Awareness 45Problem 6. Wit
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After showing the video the first t
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Focalism and the Focusing Illusion
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Bounded Awareness in Strategic Sett
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Bounded Awareness in Auctions 59th
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to have overbid, or at least not by
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Lawsuit: You are being sued for $50
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Framing and the Irrationality of th
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We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocerta
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participants who were given Version
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What’s It Worth to You? 71straig
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The Value We Place on What We Own
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Mental Accounting 75systematically
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Do No Harm, the Omission Bias, and
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Joint Versus Separate Preference Re
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Joint Versus Separate Preference Re
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Conclusion and Integration 83Given
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When Emotion and Cognition Collide
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The Impact of Temporal DifferencesW
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When Emotion and Cognition Collide
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Positive Illusions 91players or wi
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Positive Illusions 93individual’
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Self-Serving Reasoning 95attribute
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Emotional Influences on Decision Ma
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feedback on the decision not chosen
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CHAPTERSIXThe Escalation of Commitm
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The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm
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The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
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The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
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reasons. The first three classes of
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Why Does Escalation Occur? 111In h
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CHAPTERSEVENFairness and Ethics inD
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Perceptions of Fairness 115underpe
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Perceptions of Fairness 117include
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Perceptions of Fairness 119in thes
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These findings are consistent with
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Bounded Ethicality 123within firms
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Bounded Ethicality 125(Epley, Caru
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Bounded Ethicality 127implicit des
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Bounded Ethicality 129people. Inst
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Bounded Ethicality 131The results
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Bounded Ethicality 133played a pec
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Conclusion 135the classic experime
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Common Investment Mistakes 137to h
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The Psychology of Poor Investment D
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to taxes. From a tax perspective, w
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Action Steps 147island have been l
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choose them carefully. Some annuiti
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CHAPTERNINEMaking Rational Decision
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Together, these three sets of facts
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CLAIMING VALUE IN NEGOTIATIONConsid
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Creating Value in Negotiation 157I
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Creating Value in Negotiation 159c
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divided between negotiators. Yet, f
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The Tools of Value Creation 163The
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The Tools of Value Creation 165Typ
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Summary and Critique 167approach,
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academic programs, corporate battle
Page 183 and 184: view the negotiation with a positiv
Page 185 and 186: Overestimating Your Value in Negoti
Page 187 and 188: Self-Serving Biases in Negotiation
Page 189 and 190: Anchoring in Negotiations 177separ
Page 191 and 192: CHAPTERELEVENImproving Decision Mak
Page 193 and 194: Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis T
Page 199 and 200: Strategy 2: Acquire Expertise 187c
Page 201 and 202: STRATEGY 3: DEBIAS YOUR JUDGMENTDeb
Page 203 and 204: virtually everyone is subject to ju
Page 205 and 206: substantially better in the Acquiri
Page 207 and 208: Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Ot
Page 209 and 210: Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Ot
Page 211 and 212: Conclusion 199the decision-making
Page 213 and 214: References 201Badaracco, J. L., Jr
Page 215 and 216: References 203Bernoulli, D. (1738/
Page 217 and 218: References 205Dasgupta, N. (2004).
Page 219 and 220: References 207Gentner, D., Loewens
Page 221 and 222: References 209Pension design and s
Page 223 and 224: References 211Latane, B., & Darley
Page 225 and 226: References 213Messick, D. M., Moor
Page 227 and 228: References 215Nosek, B. A., Banaji
Page 229 and 230: References 217Sanfey, A. G., Rilli
Page 231 and 232: References 219Staw, B. M., & Ross,
Page 233: References 221Tversky, A., & Koehl
Page 237 and 238: Daly, H., 126Damasio, A. R., 85, 86
Page 239 and 240: Jordan, D. J., 146Joyce, E. J., 33J
Page 241 and 242: Rational thinkingbounds of, 4-6abou
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