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JUDGMENT INMANAGERIALDECISION MAKIN
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Dedicated toMHB: To Howard Raiffa,
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PREFACEBetween 1981 and 1983, one o
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ContentsChapter 1Introduction to Ma
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Contents ixOverestimating Your Val
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CHAPTERONEIntroduction to Manageria
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System 1 and System 2 Thinking 3di
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The Bounds of Human Rationality 5T
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Introduction to Judgmental Heuristi
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An Outline of Things to Come 11who
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CHAPTERTWOCommon BiasesPlease read
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TABLE 2-1Chapter ProblemsCommon Bia
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Common Biases 17a. Drawing a red m
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Biases Emanating from the Availabil
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Biases Emanating from the Represent
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three flips of a coin or getting mo
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samples, scientists often grossly o
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Biases Emanating from the Represent
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Consider the following real-life sc
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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Biases Emanating from the Confirmat
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TABLE 2-2 Summary of the Twelve Bia
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TABLE 3-1Chapter ProblemsRespond to
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Bounded Awareness 45Problem 6. Wit
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After showing the video the first t
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Focalism and the Focusing Illusion
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Bounded Awareness in Strategic Sett
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Bounded Awareness in Strategic Sett
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Bounded Awareness in Strategic Sett
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Bounded Awareness in Auctions 59th
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to have overbid, or at least not by
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Lawsuit: You are being sued for $50
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Framing and the Irrationality of th
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We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocerta
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participants who were given Version
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What’s It Worth to You? 71straig
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The Value We Place on What We Own
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Mental Accounting 75systematically
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Do No Harm, the Omission Bias, and
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Joint Versus Separate Preference Re
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Joint Versus Separate Preference Re
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Conclusion and Integration 83Given
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When Emotion and Cognition Collide
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The Impact of Temporal DifferencesW
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When Emotion and Cognition Collide
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Positive Illusions 91players or wi
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Positive Illusions 93individual’
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Self-Serving Reasoning 95attribute
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Emotional Influences on Decision Ma
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feedback on the decision not chosen
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CHAPTERSIXThe Escalation of Commitm
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The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm
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The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
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The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
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reasons. The first three classes of
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Why Does Escalation Occur? 111In h
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CHAPTERSEVENFairness and Ethics inD
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Perceptions of Fairness 115underpe
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Perceptions of Fairness 117include
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Perceptions of Fairness 119in thes
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These findings are consistent with
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Bounded Ethicality 123within firms
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Bounded Ethicality 125(Epley, Caru
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Bounded Ethicality 127implicit des
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Bounded Ethicality 129people. Inst
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Bounded Ethicality 131The results
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Bounded Ethicality 133played a pec
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Conclusion 135the classic experime
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Common Investment Mistakes 137to h
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The Psychology of Poor Investment D
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The Psychology of Poor Investment D
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The Psychology of Poor Investment D
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to taxes. From a tax perspective, w
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Action Steps 147island have been l
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choose them carefully. Some annuiti
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- Page 217 and 218: References 205Dasgupta, N. (2004).
- Page 219 and 220: References 207Gentner, D., Loewens
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- Page 223 and 224: References 211Latane, B., & Darley
- Page 225 and 226: References 213Messick, D. M., Moor
- Page 227 and 228: References 215Nosek, B. A., Banaji
- Page 229 and 230: References 217Sanfey, A. G., Rilli
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- Page 233 and 234: References 221Tversky, A., & Koehl
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