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Allst<strong>at</strong>e Indemnity Company<br />

Priv<strong>at</strong>e Passenger Auto<br />

<strong>Delaware</strong><br />

Loss Trends - Pure Premium<br />

Uninsured / Underinsured Motorist<br />

Exponential Curve of Best Fit<br />

Attachment III<br />

Exhibit 8.4<br />

Year Ending<br />

Actual Paid Pure<br />

Premium Annual Change 24 pt. 12 pt. 6 pt.<br />

06/05 $6.69 -85.52 % $11.35<br />

09/05 9.70 -78.53 11.51<br />

12/05 12.44 -32.17 11.67<br />

03/06 21.76 818.14 11.82<br />

06/06 19.48 191.18 11.98<br />

09/06 18.01 85.67 12.15<br />

12/06 12.78 2.73 12.31<br />

03/07 4.75 -78.17 12.48<br />

06/07 7.17 -63.19 12.65<br />

09/07 6.01 -66.63 12.82<br />

12/07 22.62 77.00 13.00<br />

03/08 23.03 384.84 13.17<br />

06/08 24.20 237.52 13.35 $16.28<br />

09/08 26.56 341.93 13.54 15.98<br />

12/08 11.54 -48.98 13.72 15.70<br />

03/09 9.47 -58.88 13.91 15.42<br />

06/09 13.39 -44.67 14.10 15.14<br />

09/09 16.59 -37.54 14.29 14.87<br />

12/09 10.52 -8.84 14.48 14.60 $10.30<br />

03/10 12.76 34.74 14.68 14.34 11.56<br />

06/10 11.97 -10.60 14.88 14.08 12.97<br />

09/10 12.50 -24.65 15.08 13.83 14.55<br />

12/10 17.03 61.88 15.29 13.58 16.32<br />

03/11 19.62 53.76 15.50 13.34 18.31<br />

Regression 24 pt. 12 pt.<br />

Avg Annual Percent Change Based on Best Fit: 5.56%<br />

-6.98%<br />

6 pt.<br />

58.42%

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