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Allst<strong>at</strong>e Indemnity Company<br />

Priv<strong>at</strong>e Passenger Auto<br />

<strong>Delaware</strong><br />

Loss Trends - Pure Premium<br />

Comprehensive<br />

Exponential Curve of Best Fit<br />

Attachment III<br />

Exhibit 8.6<br />

Year Ending<br />

Actual Paid Pure<br />

Premium Annual Change 24 pt. 12 pt. 6 pt.<br />

06/05 $44.93 -45.05 % $66.74<br />

09/05 70.03 0.70 65.73<br />

12/05 62.14 44.65 64.74<br />

03/06 50.65 3.16 63.76<br />

06/06 77.21 71.85 62.80<br />

09/06 56.81 -18.88 61.85<br />

12/06 63.59 2.33 60.91<br />

03/07 63.19 24.76 59.99<br />

06/07 41.63 -46.08 59.08<br />

09/07 45.02 -20.75 58.19<br />

12/07 62.98 -0.96 57.31<br />

03/08 79.65 26.05 56.44<br />

06/08 72.67 74.56 55.59 $84.37<br />

09/08 79.43 76.43 54.75 77.67<br />

12/08 51.60 -18.07 53.92 71.51<br />

03/09 45.51 -42.86 53.11 65.83<br />

06/09 62.69 -13.73 52.30 60.61<br />

09/09 55.74 -29.83 51.51 55.80<br />

12/09 119.37 131.34 50.73 51.37 $121.50<br />

03/10 83.53 † 83.54 49.97 47.30 83.56<br />

06/10 65.15 † 3.92 49.21 43.54 57.47<br />

09/10 82.61 † 48.21 48.47 40.09 39.52<br />

12/10 4.67 † -96.09 47.73 36.91 27.18<br />

03/11 46.74 -44.04 47.01 33.98 18.69<br />

Regression 24 pt. 12 pt.<br />

Avg Annual Percent Change Based on Best Fit: -5.91%<br />

-28.16%<br />

†Adjusted Values<br />

6 pt.<br />

-77.63%

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