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Allst<strong>at</strong>e Indemnity<br />

Year Ending<br />

Allst<strong>at</strong>e Indemnity Company<br />

Priv<strong>at</strong>e Passenger Auto<br />

<strong>Delaware</strong><br />

Loss Trends - Frequency<br />

Comprehensive<br />

Exponential Curve of Best Fit<br />

Attachment III<br />

Exhibit 8.12<br />

06/05 5.5847 % -9.20 % 4.7932 %<br />

09/05 6.3353 15.68 4.8554<br />

12/05 5.6278 -1.31 4.9185<br />

03/06 4.6888 -22.04 4.9824<br />

06/06 5.8606 4.94 5.0471<br />

09/06 4.9711 -21.53 5.1126<br />

12/06 4.4291 -21.30 5.1790<br />

03/07 3.7024 -21.04 5.2462<br />

06/07 3.6462 -37.78 5.3144<br />

09/07 3.6554 -26.47 5.3834<br />

12/07 3.5305 -20.29 5.4533<br />

03/08 6.2095 67.72 5.5241<br />

06/08 6.0671 66.40 5.5958 7.3238 %<br />

09/08 7.5270 105.91 5.6685 7.1695<br />

12/08 8.9062 152.26 5.7421 7.0184<br />

03/09 6.8608 10.49 5.8167 6.8706<br />

06/09 7.9365 30.81 5.8922 6.7258<br />

09/09 6.7839 -9.87 5.9687 6.5841<br />

12/09 5.5617 -37.55 6.0462 6.4454 5.2050 %<br />

03/10 5.5446 † -19.18 6.1248 6.3096 5.4429<br />

06/10 4.8181 † -39.29 6.2043 6.1767 5.6918<br />

09/10 6.3526 † -6.36 6.2849 6.0466 5.9520<br />

12/10 6.0051 † 7.97 6.3665 5.9192 6.2241<br />

03/11 6.8596 23.72 6.4492 5.7945 6.5086<br />

Avg Annual Percent Change Based on Best Fit:<br />

†Adjusted Values<br />

Actual Paid<br />

Frequency Annual Change 24 pt. 12 pt.<br />

Regression 24 pt. 12 pt. 6 pt.<br />

5.30%<br />

-8.16%<br />

6 pt.<br />

19.58%

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