DVD Demystified

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Introduction
Chapter 13
In the fall of 2000, as this book was being finished, DVD was on the verge
of turning four years old. It had succeeded beyond many expectations but
also failed to meet other expectations. Given the wide range of forecasts and
markets, this is no surprise. This chapter examines past and present forecasts,
along with possibilities for DVD over the next decade or so. At the
very least, it should prove entertaining and informative to reread this chapter
four or five years hence.
Even though DVD PCs were five to seven times as popular as home DVD
players in 2000, about 10,000 movie titles were available, compared to only
200 computer software titles. Over 100 million DVDs discs were shipped in
1999, with expectations of shipping 230 million or more in 2000, potentially
surpassing VHS revenues. Before the end of 2000, 10 percent of U.S. homes
had a DVD player. Although DVD has a long way to go before it reaches the
98 percent penetration of color TV and the 94 percent penetration of VCRs,
now that it has passed the inflection point of 10 percent, its growth will presumably
continue to accelerate faster than any previous consumer electronics
entertainment technology.
The success of DVD-Audio is assured only by the success of DVD-Video.
If DVD-Audio had to stand on its own, it would most likely fall flat on its
face. Instead, however, it rides the coattails of DVD-Video. By 2002 or thereabouts,
most DVD players will play both DVD-Audio and DVD-Video discs,
and the distinctions between formats will largely disappear. DVD-Audio
discs will simply be a higher-fidelity variation of DVD.
Although the growth of the DVD PC market has been slower than generally
expected, it will inevitably displace the CD-ROM PC market. CD-
ROM media will continue to be widely used, however, but CD-ROM drives
will soon suffer the fate of single-density floppy drives (remember those?).
The argument about whether DVD will succeed or not has been settled,
but now the question is how well will it succeed? How long will it take prerecorded
DVDs to outsell VHS tapes? When will DVD recorders replace
VCRs? Will the DVD-VR and DVD-AR formats succeed? How will harddisk-based
personal video recorders (PVRs) factor in? When will the next
generation of high-density DVD appear? How much will it hold? What will
the high-definition video format be like? Will we ever need another audio
format?
The variables involved in predicting the road of DVD are extremely complex,
but this has not deterred many people from making plentiful predictions
from the sensible to the outrageous.
TEAMFLY