DVD Demystified

The Future of DVD
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Disk/Trend: DVD-ROM drive sales will pass CD drive sales in 2001,
with 60.3 million DVD units sold versus 56.8 million CD units. By
2002, consumers will buy 92.8 million DVD drives, compared to
30.3 million CD drives.
Hewlett Packard: More than 140 million DVD-ROM drives and DVD
video players will be in use by the end of 2001.
Understanding and Solutions: The attach rate of DVD-ROM PCs in
Western Europe will hit nine percent in 2000, 20 percent in 2001,
37 percent in 2002, and 58 percent in 2003.
Strategy Analytics: Global DVD hardware sales (players and drives)
will reach 46 million units in 2000, including 21 million in the
U.S. and 17 million in Europe. The average price of a DVD player
in 2001 will fall to $200 in the US and $270 in Europe. Fourteen
percent of U.S. homes and five percent of European homes will
own at least one TV-based DVD player by the end of 2000. By
2002, 58 percent of U.S. homes will own at least one DVD device
(a player, game console, or PC). DVD PCs, which accounted for 75
percent of the installed base at the beginning of 2000, will fall to
59 percent by 2002 as TV-based DVD becomes more widespread.
Video titles accounted for over 90 percent of the software market
in 1999. By 2005, their share will have fallen to 43 percent, while
DVD-ROM will account for 28 percent and games formats will
total 24 percent. Worldwide DVD-Video disc shipments in 2000
will reach nearly 400 million units, growing to 2.3 billion by 2005,
worth $44 billion. Including other DVD formats (games, ROM,
and audio), shipments will reach 3.7 billion by 2005, worth nearly
$100 billion.
Dataquest: DVD drives outsold CD-RW in 1999 (16.2 million versus
12.5 million), but CD-RW will take the lead in 2000 with 28.7
million CD-RW units shipped compared with 22.6 million DVD
drives. By 2002, DVD will overtake CD-RW, and by 2004 a
predicted 105 million DVD drives will be shipped versus 28
million CD-RW drives.
Paul Kagan Associates: Hard-disk-based PVR sales in the U.S. will
reach one million in 2000, 12 million in 2004, and 40 million by
2008.
Forrester Research: Fourteen million PVRs will be in homes by 2004.
About 80 percent of U.S. homes could have PVRs by 2010.