INDUSTRIAL LAND IN A POST-INDUSTRIAL CITY District of ...

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District of Columbia Industrial Areas Study DC Office of Planning Prepared by Phillips Preiss Shapiro Associates, Inc. RIMS tables were obtained for the Washington, DC PMSA. The tables provide a matrix disaggregating the output, earnings and employment impacts that occur across a range of industry groups from a change in output in one particular industry. Impacts can be estimated for 20 industry groups. Four of these—construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing—have been grouped together as PDR industries. In truth, other PDR industries are aggregated within other groups, but there is no way to separate them out using the RIMS model. The analysis here should therefore be understood as capturing much, but not all, potential PDR multiplier impacts. Table 2.4 shows the PDR-specific employment multipliers for non-PDR, aggregate RIMS industries. These multipliers represent the sum of the individual multipliers for the four PDR aggregate RIMS industries, and show the employment increase resulting from an addition $1 million in output from the each row industry in the table. They are sorted in descending order. The table shows that some of the “core” industries in the District that are most strongly linked with regional PDR industries include educational services, social assistance, and hospitals. Professional, scientific and technical services; as well as accommodation, are somewhat less strongly linked. While Table 2.4 is useful for comparing different industries in terms of the strength of their links with PDR industries, the multipliers in isolation do not speak to resulting magnitude of impacts. Output for most of these industries in the District alone is measured in the hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars, not millions; therefore even these modest multipliers can result in big impacts. To get a better understanding, a case study approach using one core industry— professional, scientific and technical services—has been undertaken to better understand the magnitude of the linkages and the implications for DC’s industrial areas. Looking first at the existing condition, the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry (which includes lawyers and various consultants) had annual gross sales (or output) of nearly $18 trillion in the District as of the 2002 Economic Census. The regional PDR job impact of this industry can be estimated using the RIMS multipliers, as shown in Table 2.5. The table indicates that DC’s Professional, Scientific and Technical Services directly support over 14,000 PDR jobs throughout the region. The number of these jobs actually located within the District is unknown. By way of comparison, in 2002, the year to which this analysis is benchmarked, total PDR employment in the District in these four industry aggregations was about 31,000. - 27 -
District of Columbia Industrial Areas Study DC Office of Planning Prepared by Phillips Preiss Shapiro Associates, Inc. Table 2.4: PDR Multipliers for Non-PDR Industries, Jobs Created per $1 million in Additional Output by Industry, Washington PMSA RIMS Industry Multiplier* 59. Other services* 1.17 51. Educational services 0.98 37. Publishing including software 0.95 54. Social assistance 0.93 53. Hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities 0.91 40. Information and data processing services 0.89 55. Performing arts, museums, and related activities 0.81 58. Food services and drinking places 0.81 52. Ambulatory health care services 0.81 42. Securities, commodity contracts, investments 0.81 28. Retail trade 0.80 48. Management of companies and enterprises 0.79 56. Amusements, gambling, and recreation 0.78 47. Professional, scientific, and technical services 0.77 57. Accommodation 0.77 60. Households 0.73 49. Administrative and support services 0.71 44. Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles 0.67 41. Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation and related services 0.61 43. Insurance carriers and related activities 0.48 46. Rental and leasing services and lessors of intangible assets 0.43 45. Real estate 0.40 * Includes government enterprises Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Input-output Multiplier System Phillips Preiss Shapiro Associates, Inc. - 28 -
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