manual on management of drugs

Table 2:Model chart of quantity available
Month Stock Consumption/units
July 2006 2,800 2,800
August 2006 5,000 3,000
September 2006 2,000 2,000
October 2006 - -
November 2006 10,000 3,100
December 2006 6,900 3,000
January 2007 3,900 3,300
February 2007 10,300 3,200
March 2007 7,100 3,150
April 2007 3,950 3,100
May 2007 7,850 3,350
June 2007 4,500 3,250
* Divisional hospitals are categorised as type A, type B, type C
Select minimum of 9 months data of consumption when sufficient stocks are
available. Identify the mean of the 9 months consumption and examine the
trend of use in consumption with usage of alternative drugs, drugs of different
strengths (if applicable dosage forms). Calculate the average monthly
requirement based on these data.
Suppose we do this exercise for one drug:
The non-consumption for this drug in October 2006 is due to drug
being out of stock in the institution. The low consumption in July and
September 2006 may be due to low availability of the drug.
Therefore the consumption in August 2006, November 2006, December 2006
and January 2007 to June 2007, may count to calculate average monthly
consumption.
Therefore Average monthly consumption
= 3,000 + 3,100 + 3,000 + 3,300 + 3,200 + 3,150 + 3,100 +
3,350 + 3,250
9
= 3,161
As per data given in the above chart monthly consumption is showing an
increasing trend. Hence suggest forecasting monthly consumption for the
year – 1 as 3,300.
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