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Table B-1<br />

Development Scenarios for IT Practitioners in Germany<br />

Net supply estimation for each Scenario<br />

(estimates have not been rounded)<br />

Scenario Starying Point:<br />

Year/<br />

Quarter<br />

2002<br />

Q2<br />

Scenario 1:<br />

initial trough +2%<br />

Forecast<br />

for total<br />

in<br />

employment<br />

Annual<br />

New<br />

Supply<br />

Requirement<br />

Scenario 2:<br />

initial trough +5%<br />

Forecast<br />

for total<br />

in<br />

employment<br />

Annual<br />

New<br />

Supply<br />

Requirement<br />

Scenario 3:<br />

initial trough +10%<br />

Forecast<br />

for total<br />

in<br />

employment<br />

Annual<br />

New<br />

Supply<br />

Requirement<br />

Scenario 4:<br />

initial trough +15%<br />

Forecast<br />

for total<br />

in<br />

employment<br />

552,087 552,087 552,087 552,087<br />

Annual<br />

New<br />

Supply<br />

Requirement<br />

2000-2001:<br />

2001<br />

Q2<br />

529,034 542,728 564,031 595,069<br />

Growth Demand -23,053 -9,359 11,943 43,522<br />

Replacement Demand 13,226 13,568 14,101 14,890<br />

Total (Net) Demand -9,827 4,209 26,044 58,412<br />

2001-2002<br />

2002<br />

Q2<br />

468,900 493,489 532,989 594,340<br />

Growth Demand -60,134 -49,239 -31,042 -1,269<br />

Replacement Demand 11,722 12,337 13,325 14,858<br />

Total (Net) Demand -48,412 -36,902 -17,717 -13,589<br />

2002-2003<br />

2003<br />

Q2<br />

488,559 527,489 592,071 697,187<br />

Growth Demand 19,659 34,000 59,083 102,847<br />

Replacement Demand 12,214 13,187 14,802 17,430<br />

Total (Net) Demand 31,873 47,187 73,885 120,277<br />

2003-2004<br />

2004<br />

Q2<br />

574,707 636,563 742,545 923,329<br />

Growth Demand 86,148 109,074 150,474 226,142<br />

Replacement Demand 14,368 15,914 18,564 23,083<br />

Total (Net) Demand 100,516 124,989 169,037 249,225<br />

2004-2005<br />

2002<br />

Q2<br />

607,334 690,114 836,609 1,098,537<br />

Growth Demand 32,626 53,551 94,064 175,208<br />

Replacement Demand 15,183 17,253 20,915 27,463<br />

Total (Net) Demand 47,810 70,804 114,979 202,671<br />

118<br />

| C E P I S I.T. PRACTITIONER SKILLS IN EUROPE | Annex B

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