the Labour Market Survey Report - Council of European ...

Q1
1995 Q3
Q1
1996 Q3
Q1
1997 Q3
Q1
1998 Q3
Q1
1998 Q3
Q1
2000 Q3
Q1
2001 Q3
Q1
2002 Q3
Q1
2003 Q3
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2004 Q3
Q1
2005 Q3
Possible Futures of IT Practitioner employment in the United Kingdom
Figure E-9 shows four scenarios for the development of the size of the IT Practitioner workforce in
the United Kingdom, based on the Eurostat totals for Computing Professionals (ISCO 213) (the UK
has submitted no data for Computer Associate Professionals (ISCO 312*)), based on assumptions of
employment growth at 2% p.a., 5% p.a., 10% p.a. and 15% p.a., subject to the initial trough.
Table E-1 shows, for the four scenarios given, the Total (net) new supply of skilled manpower that
would be required to sustain that level of employment growth. It is recognized that the validity of
the assumptions – in particular about the shape of the initial “trough”, the “phasing” in relation to the
relevant national business cycle, and the level of replacement demand – would be refined as the first
step in deeper review analysis at the national level.
Figure E-9
Recent development of British ITP workforce total and Forecast Scenarios
(Source: Eurostat holdings of EU Member State Labour Force Surveys: data for ISCO 312)
1,200,000
ISCO 213
Numbers in employment in each Category
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
Scenario 1
(2% p.a.)
Scenario 2
(5% p.a.)
Scenario 3
(10% p.a.)
Scenario 4
(15% p.a.)
0
Year/Quarter
N.B. Average employment growth over previous 5 years was 12.9%; most recent annual employment
increase was 2.5%
* because, as for Ireland, the main national IT Practitioner category included workers both with and
without degrees
138
| C E P I S I.T. PRACTITIONER SKILLS IN EUROPE | Annex E