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c) The approach taken in this study is therefore to investigate future demand by exploring scenarios of the development of employment levels from the most recent figures available from official statistics. This will be done making certain very broad assumptions about the development of overall economic activity, but will also explore several scenarios, in recognition that a single projection produces unmerited implicit confidence in a particular future that is not supported by any evidence. There is a considerable body of knowledge surrounding scenario analysis. Often forecasting analyses draw on two or three scenarios. This study uses four scenarios, since two scenarios can misleadingly give the impression that the future will definitely lie somewhere between the two, and three scenarios generally produce the instinctive response of selecting the “middle” course, which is thereby given undue credibility as a “compromise”. With four scenarios, the reader recognizes that there could be more and thus none of the scenarios will actually come to pass, and the absence of “one in the middle” strengthens the recognition of many possibilities (technically, these are employment growth possibilities, rather than “real” scenarios). d) The scenario developments adopted for this study are shown in Figure 19. As can be seen, there is an initial dip in the development reflecting the recent fall in confidence in the relevant economies generally and IT activity in particular, including a series of lay-offs of high tech staff*. The four scenarios involve annual employment growth rates of 2%, 5% 10% and 15% respectively, superimposed on a “trough” characteristic represented by a ‘sinusoidal’ waveform. This has been chosen as a relatively good way of achieving a smooth dip, and fulfils the following constraints: • There is an initial peak (to enable a smooth “point of inflection” transition to a fall) • The trough “hits its lowest point” around the end of 2002 • The “trough” component disappears once the curve has returned to the initial peak level (since this cyclical component is too “short” - for a “real business cycle” - for it to produce further influence once a real pick-up has been achieved) As can be seen from Figure 19, the combination of the steady growth and the trough component produces troughs of different intensity and lowest-point-timing depending on the underlying growth rate. The choice of the four employment growth rates (while essentially arbitrary) is broadly consistent – in terms of a range – with the growth rates experienced over recent years: taking the four countries examined in depth and the total of all Member States, the figures are as follows: Average annual employment growth over five years Percentage increase in the latest year for which there is data Germany 9.5% 17.8% Ireland (unavailable) 11.2% Sweden 15.6% (over 3 years) 34.7% United Kingdom 12.9% 2.5% EU as a whole 11.6% 10.5% * The latest informed commentaries continue to confirm serious concern for the IT sector 76 | C E P I S I.T. PRACTITIONER SKILLS IN EUROPE | Section 5
Q1 Q2 2000 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2001 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2002 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2003 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2004 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2005 Q3 Q4 Perhaps the most valuable test is of “smoothness” of continuation of the trend from the actual figures in recent years, as detected by the eye**. While, overall, this model is by no means perfect, it is nevertheless believed to a be a robust enough basis for considering futures up to the year 2005, and can be updated as new data appears. It is undoubtedly true that “employment development” curves can in principle change dramatically. However, in practice the “overall inertia in the system” means this is very unlikely, so that “smoothness” of the growth curves is in reality a very powerful consideration. Figure 19 Growth Scenarios (Source: Eurostat holdings of EU Member State Labour Force Surveys: data for ISCO 312) 2.5 Trough Characteristic Scenario 1 (2% p.a.) Scenario 2 (5% p.a.) Scenario Factor 1.5 1 Scenario 3 (10% p.a.) Scenario 4 (15% p.a.) 0.5 0 Year/Quarter The fact that the most recent figures available at the time of writing for all Member States are for Quarter 2 of 2000 is inevitably a problem (since there has been significant change in the employment growth since then): however, since the figures for subsequent Quarters of 2001 will be appearing over the coming months, it will be possible as they arrive to clarify which scenario has been closest to the actual development, and, on a country-by-country basis the discrepancies will be used to influence the refining of the scenarios. ** it is recognized that these are scenarios only in the sense of possible future trajectories of employment growth. Full scenario analysis would normally involve a series of explicit assumptions about development of a series of “drivers” (e.g. Political, Economic, Social and Technological) C E P I S I.T. PRACTITIONER SKILLS IN EUROPE | Section 5 | 77
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Information Technology Practitioner
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Information Technology Practitioner
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Preface In spite of an extended per
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Acknowledgements The author has bee
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Executive Summary The current state
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Table of Contents 1. Introduction .
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1. Introduction This Study was init
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In its quantitative work, this stud
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2. Economic Context 2.1 Scale and I
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2.2 Market Performance Labour marke
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2.4 Employers’ and Individuals’
Page 28 and 29: 26 | C E P I S I.T. PRACTITIONER SK
Page 30 and 31: 3. Policy Context 3.1 Academic and
Page 32 and 33: Probably the greatest challenge in
Page 35 and 36: Information Technology Practitioner
Page 37 and 38: The ISCO classification used for Eu
Page 39 and 40: 4.2 Recent development of the IT Pr
Page 41 and 42: 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200
Page 43 and 44: 4.3 IT Practitioners in Germany The
Page 45 and 46: The “Monitoring Informationswirts
Page 47 and 48: 4.4 IT Practitioners in Ireland The
Page 49 and 50: As part of its work, the Expert Gro
Page 51 and 52: Table 3: Sub-sectoral structure of
Page 53 and 54: From the data gathered for this stu
Page 55 and 56: applicants to such courses (as meas
Page 57 and 58: • Around one in ten establishment
Page 59 and 60: 4.7 Some comparisons between the fo
Page 61 and 62: Employment Status: Probably the mos
Page 63 and 64: Highest Academic Achievement of Com
Page 65 and 66: ISCED Levels 0-2: General Education
Page 67 and 68: 4.8 IT Practitioners in other Membe
Page 69 and 70: 1.8 1.6 1.2 1 0.6 0.2 Figure 18 Num
Page 71 and 72: Recent policy responses to skill sh
Page 75 and 76: The IDC approach is based on estima
Page 77: 5.3 Improving Validity of Estimates
Page 81 and 82: Figure 20 Development Scenarios for
Page 85 and 86: 6.2 The Need for, and Value of, Mor
Page 87 and 88: 6.4 Proposed Full Study for all EU
Page 91: (ii) Education and Training terms i
Page 95 and 96: Annex A Definitions, Datastructures
Page 97 and 98: - “Skills Framework for the Infor
Page 99 and 100: Occupational Frameworks for this St
Page 101 and 102: NACE Nomenclature generale des Acti
Page 103 and 104: Section J: Financial intermediation
Page 105 and 106: ISCO International Standard Occupat
Page 107 and 108: Limitations: Eurostat Holdings of M
Page 109 and 110: The occupational classification app
Page 111 and 112: SOC-90 Categories ISCO-88 Codes 123
Page 113 and 114: Annex B Analyses of Eurostat Data:
Page 115 and 116: 120,000 Figure B-2 Age Profiles of
Page 117 and 118: Numbers employed with ISCED Educati
Page 119 and 120: Q1 1995 Q3 Q1 1996 Q3 Q1 1997 Q3 Q1
Page 121 and 122: Annex C Analyses of Eurostat Data:
Page 123 and 124: Employer Size Distribution of Compu
Page 125 and 126: Table C-1 Development Scenarios for
Page 127 and 128: Annex D Analyses of Eurostat Data:
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Numbers in employment in each Categ
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Status of Computing Professionals i
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Table D-1 Development Scenarios for
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Annex E Analyses of Eurostat Data:
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350,000 Figure E-3 Computing Profes
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25,000 Figure E-7 Status of Computi
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Table E-1 Development Scenarios for
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Annex F References and Brief Abstra
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IDC (2000): IDC Study on the ICT sk
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IDC (Milroy, A. and Rajah, P.) 2000
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2. National Level Work: a. Germany
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ITNTO 1999 “Bugbuster” Final Re
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Council of European Professional In
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