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5.4 Robustness of Estimates
As can be seen from the above, the approach using four scenarios involves an important degree of
robustness as compared with the IDC and Career-Space approaches, and the presentations have been
designed to minimize risk of unwarranted confidence in the reader in any one future. However, as with
all forecasting work, it is crucial to recognize that “future-gazing” is a risky business, and perceptions
based on this model must continue to be questioned and tested, in particular by updating the model as
new data becomes available, and errors between the new data and forecasts for it should be thoroughly
analysed for lessons to be learned.
In summary, the limitations to the analyses and forecasts in this study include the following:
• Limited “granularity” of analysis resulting from having to work with only two occupational
categories;
• Likely imperfections of consistency in use of the ISCO classification by statistical offices in
different Member States in relating to national occupational classification frameworks;
• Inconsistencies arising from other differences between the LFS data-gathering processes in
different Member States, including variation in degree of use of proxy interviews (reported by
Eurostat to be - e.g. - significantly higher in Spain than in Nordic countries)
• Limitations to various analyses of specific characteristics of the occupational labour markets
investigated (different “cross-tabulations” arising from statistical reliability limitations where
sample size for the sub-sets fell below the relative level – confidence threshold generally shown
in chart);
• Limitations associated with the assumptions within the scenario model – in particular the shape
of the “initial trough” curve.
5.5 Preliminary Scenarios
The “initial trough with varying underlying growth rate” forecasting model has been applied to the latest
(2000Q2) figures for all ITPs (ISCO 213 and – where non-zero – ISCO312) both in the four Member States
examined in more detail (see Annexes B, C, D and E) and the total for the EU as a whole – see Figure 20.
The corresponding estimates for new demand each year until 2005 are given in Table 5. Replacement
demand is assumed, as a preliminary rough estimate, to be 3% of initial stock.
This leads to a set of cumulative (net, new) demand figures for the European Union for the four years
2001–>2005 of:
2% underlying growth: 583,000,
5% underlying growth: 912,000,
10% underlying growth: 1,505,000, and
15% underlying growth: 2,592,000.
(all figures rounded to the nearest 1,000)
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| C E P I S I.T. PRACTITIONER SKILLS IN EUROPE | Section 5