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Liquidity supply and adverse selection <strong>in</strong> a pure limit order book market 95<br />

the liquidity supply equations which are implied by the zero expected pr<strong>of</strong>it<br />

condition can be written as<br />

0<br />

1<br />

B<br />

qþk;t ¼ 2B<br />

@<br />

0<br />

B<br />

q k;t ¼ 2B<br />

@<br />

pþk;t Xt<br />

Xt p k;t<br />

qþk;t<br />

q k;t<br />

þ<br />

C<br />

A Qþk 1;t k ¼ 1; 2; ::: ðask sideÞ<br />

1<br />

C<br />

A Q kþ1;t k ¼ 1; 2; ::: ðbid sideÞ:<br />

ξ denotes the fixed cost component which is assumed to be identical for each price<br />

tick <strong>in</strong> the order book. To derive the equations <strong>in</strong> Eq. (10), we have reta<strong>in</strong>ed the<br />

parametric assumption about the distribution <strong>of</strong> trade sizes. Consider<strong>in</strong>g a nonparametric<br />

alternative along the l<strong>in</strong>es described <strong>in</strong> the previous subsection is also feasible.<br />

Proceed<strong>in</strong>g as above, i.e. by elim<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g the unobserved fundamental asset value Xt by<br />

add<strong>in</strong>g the bid and ask side equations for quote +k and −k yields the follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />

unconditional moment restrictions which we refer to as average break even conditions,<br />

E p k;t 2<br />

qþk;t q k;t<br />

1<br />

2 Qþk;t þ 2 þ 1<br />

2 Q k;t<br />

(10)<br />

¼ 0 k ¼ 1; 2;:::;<br />

where Δp ± k,t = p +k,t − p − k,t. Subtract<strong>in</strong>g deviations from the implied depths at the kth<br />

quote at time t +1andt and tak<strong>in</strong>g expectation yields the follow<strong>in</strong>g equations which<br />

we refer to as average update conditions,<br />

E pþk;tþ1 qþk;t<br />

(11)<br />

þ<br />

qþk;t 1 2 Qþk;tþ1 ð Qþk;tÞ<br />

mt ¼0 k ¼1; 2; :::<br />

E p k;tþ1þ<br />

qþk;t qþk;t<br />

þ ðQk;tþ1 1 2<br />

Q k;tÞ<br />

mt ¼0 k ¼1; 2;:::;<br />

(12)<br />

where Δp j,t +1 = p j, t +1− p j ,t. The average break even and update conditions replace<br />

the marg<strong>in</strong>al break even and update conditions <strong>of</strong> Eqs. (4) and (5).<br />

4 Empirical results<br />

4.1 Performance comparisons<br />

Us<strong>in</strong>g the DAX30 order book data we follow Såndas (2001) and estimate the<br />

model parameters exploit<strong>in</strong>g the marg<strong>in</strong>al break even conditions (4) and the<br />

marg<strong>in</strong>al updat<strong>in</strong>g conditions (5) along with Eq. (6). To construct the moment<br />

conditions we use the respective first four best quotes, i.e. k=1, . . . ,4 on the bid and<br />

the ask side <strong>of</strong> the visible order book. This yields thirteen moment conditions: four

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