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Table 3 Estimated probabilities <strong>of</strong> price change conditional on volume and duration<br />

Volume<br />

(percentile)<br />

Duration<br />

(percentile)<br />

Δp t ≤−2 −1≤Δp t ≤ 1 Δp t ≥−2<br />

IBM GE BA MO IBM GE BA MO IBM GE BA MO<br />

(a) Seller-<strong>in</strong>itiated trades 20th 20th 0.243 0.119 0.139 0.148 0.742 0.875 0.848 0.839 0.016 0.006 0.014 0.013<br />

40th 0.298 0.142 0.203 0.184 0.677 0.850 0.775 0.799 0.025 0.008 0.022 0.017<br />

60th 0.327 0.157 0.222 0.199 0.645 0.834 0.751 0.784 0.027 0.008 0.027 0.017<br />

80th 0.374 0.163 0.226 0.210 0.601 0.831 0.738 0.774 0.025 0.006 0.036 0.016<br />

40th 20th 0.246 0.125 0.141 0.158 0.742 0.869 0.846 0.832 0.012 0.006 0.013 0.010<br />

40th 0.307 0.146 0.205 0.192 0.673 0.846 0.775 0.796 0.020 0.008 0.021 0.012<br />

60th 0.341 0.163 0.227 0.215 0.636 0.829 0.748 0.772 0.024 0.008 0.025 0.013<br />

80th 0.390 0.168 0.253 0.224 0.583 0.825 0.717 0.763 0.027 0.007 0.030 0.014<br />

60th 20th 0.241 0.128 0.142 0.163 0.749 0.866 0.847 0.829 0.011 0.007 0.012 0.009<br />

40th 0.320 0.153 0.212 0.200 0.661 0.839 0.769 0.790 0.018 0.008 0.019 0.011<br />

60th 0.366 0.174 0.241 0.231 0.612 0.818 0.737 0.757 0.022 0.008 0.023 0.012<br />

80th 0.411 0.181 0.269 0.245 0.564 0.812 0.704 0.746 0.026 0.007 0.027 0.010<br />

80th 20th 0.202 0.120 0.133 0.161 0.789 0.874 0.858 0.831 0.009 0.005 0.009 0.008<br />

40th 0.341 0.153 0.223 0.202 0.640 0.840 0.759 0.788 0.018 0.007 0.018 0.010<br />

60th 0.397 0.202 0.267 0.264 0.582 0.791 0.712 0.723 0.021 0.006 0.021 0.013<br />

80th 0.472 0.215 0.313 0.269 0.509 0.777 0.663 0.720 0.018 0.008 0.024 0.011<br />

262<br />

A. S. Tay, C. T<strong>in</strong>g

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