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Appendix<br />

Table A1 Consumer confidence<br />

• ✓<br />

10 m<strong>in</strong> −0.06 −0.05 −0.09 −0.07 −0.06 −0.06 −0.04 −0.09 −0.09 −0.07 −0.09 −0.03 −0.05 −0.06 −0.06 −0.01 −0.06 −0.08 −0.11 −0.06 0.08<br />

20 m<strong>in</strong> −0.06 −0.07 −0.06 −0.06 −0.06 −0.06 −0.07 −0.07 −0.05 −0.05 −0.09 −0.05 −0.05 −0.06 −0.11 −0.06 −0.05 −0.04 −0.07 −0.04 −0.13<br />

30 m<strong>in</strong> −0.06 −0.06 −0.04 −0.05 −0.06 −0.06 −0.08 −0.05 −0.03 −0.04 −0.08 −0.06 −0.04 −0.05 −0.11 −0.08 −0.03 −0.01 −0.04 −0.02 −0.21<br />

40 m<strong>in</strong> −0.04 −0.05 −0.02 −0.04 −0.05 −0.04 −0.07 −0.03 −0.02 −0.02 −0.06 −0.06 −0.02 −0.04 −0.10 −0.08 −0.02 0.01 −0.03 0.02 0.21<br />

50 m<strong>in</strong> −0.03 −0.03 −0.01 −0.02 −0.03 −0.02 −0.05 −0.02 −0.01 −0.01 −0.04 −0.05 −0.01 −0.02 −0.06 −0.07 0.00 0.01 −0.02 −0.01 −0.16<br />

60 m<strong>in</strong> −0.01 −0.01 −0.01 −0.01 −0.02 −0.01 −0.03 −0.02 −0.01 0.00 −0.02 −0.04 0.00 −0.01 −0.03 −0.05 0.01 0.01 −0.01 −0.01 −0.09<br />

70 m<strong>in</strong> 0.00 0.00 −0.01 0.00 −0.01 0.01 −0.01 −0.01 −0.01 0.00 0.00 −0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 −0.04 0.02 0.01 −0.01 −0.01 −0.02<br />

80 m<strong>in</strong> 0.01 0.01 −0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 −0.01 −0.01 0.01 0.01 −0.02 0.02 0.01 0.03 −0.02 0.02 0.00 −0.01 −0.02 0.04<br />

90 m<strong>in</strong> 0.01 0.02 −0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 −0.01 −0.01 0.00 0.01 −0.01 0.02 0.01 0.03 −0.01 0.02 −0.01 −0.01 −0.02 0.07<br />

100 m<strong>in</strong> 0.01 0.01 −0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 −0.01 −0.01 0.00 0.01 −0.01 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 −0.02 0.00 −0.02 0.07<br />

110 m<strong>in</strong> 0.00 0.01 −0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 −0.01 −0.01 −0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 −0.02 0.00 −0.02 0.04<br />

120 m<strong>in</strong> 0.00 0.00 −0.01 −0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 −0.01 −0.01 −0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 −0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 −0.02 0.00 −0.02 0.00<br />

Estimation results us<strong>in</strong>g PDL models with polynomial <strong>of</strong> degree three. Standard errors estimated with the heteroskedastic consistent White estimator. Bold and italic<br />

numbers are significant at 5 and 10%, respectively. Otherwise, they are statistically equal to zero. •,✓and stand for estimation results for all, positive and negative<br />

forecast<strong>in</strong>g errors, respectively. and stand for estimation results for forecast<strong>in</strong>g errors <strong>in</strong> expansions and contractions <strong>of</strong> the bus<strong>in</strong>ess cycle, respectively. , ,<br />

and stand for estimation results for forecast<strong>in</strong>g errors <strong>in</strong> the top, bottom, expansions and contractions <strong>of</strong> the bus<strong>in</strong>ess cycle<br />

284<br />

D. Veredas

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