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Luc Bauwens . Dagf<strong>in</strong>n Rime . Genaro Sucarrat<br />

Exchange rate volatility and the mixture<br />

<strong>of</strong> distribution hypothesis<br />

Abstract This study sheds new light on the mixture <strong>of</strong> distribution hypothesis by<br />

means <strong>of</strong> a study <strong>of</strong> the weekly exchange rate volatility <strong>of</strong> the Norwegian krone. In<br />

l<strong>in</strong>e with other studies we f<strong>in</strong>d that the impact <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation arrival on exchange<br />

rate volatility is positive and statistically significant, and that the hypothesis that an<br />

<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> the number <strong>of</strong> traders reduces exchange rate volatility is not supported.<br />

The novelties <strong>of</strong> our study consist <strong>in</strong> document<strong>in</strong>g that the positive impact <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>formation arrival on volatility is relatively stable across three different exchange<br />

rate regimes, and <strong>in</strong> that the impact is relatively similar for both weekly volatility<br />

and weekly realised volatility. It is not given that the former should be the case<br />

s<strong>in</strong>ce exchange rate stabilisation was actively pursued by the central bank <strong>in</strong> parts<br />

<strong>of</strong> the study period. We also report a case <strong>in</strong> which undesirable residual properties<br />

atta<strong>in</strong>ed with<strong>in</strong> traditional frameworks are easily removed by apply<strong>in</strong>g the logtransformation<br />

on volatilities.<br />

Keywords Exchange rate volatility . Mixture <strong>of</strong> distribution hypothesis<br />

JEL Classification F31<br />

1 Introduction<br />

If exchange rates walk randomly and if the number <strong>of</strong> steps depends positively on<br />

the number <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation events, then exchange rate volatility over a given period<br />

L. Bauwens . G. Sucarrat (*)<br />

CORE and Department <strong>of</strong> Economics, Université catholique de Louva<strong>in</strong>,<br />

Louva<strong>in</strong>-la-Nueve, Belgium<br />

E-mail: sucarrat@core.ucl.ac.be, bauwens@core.ucl.ac.be,<br />

URL: http://www.core.ucl.ac.be/ ˜ sucarrat/<strong>in</strong>dex.html<br />

D. Rime<br />

Norges Bank, Oslo, Norway<br />

E-mail: dagf<strong>in</strong>n.rime@norges-bank.no

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