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102 S. Frey, J. Grammig<br />

approximates the percentage change <strong>of</strong> the stock price caused by a trade <strong>of</strong> (stock<br />

specific) ‘average’ size. This is a relative measure which is comparable across<br />

stocks. The τ estimates are reported <strong>in</strong> the last column <strong>of</strong> Table 4. In the follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />

subsections we study the relation <strong>of</strong> τ and market capitalization, trad<strong>in</strong>g <strong>frequency</strong>,<br />

liquidity supply and alternative adverse selections measures.<br />

4.2.1 Adverse selection effects, market capitalization and <strong>frequency</strong> <strong>of</strong> trad<strong>in</strong>g<br />

In their sem<strong>in</strong>al papers Hasbrouck (1991) and Easley et al. (1996) have reported<br />

empirical evidence that adverse selection effects are more severe for smaller<br />

capitalized stocks. Easley et al. (1996) use a formal model assum<strong>in</strong>g a Bayesian<br />

market maker who updates quotes accord<strong>in</strong>g to the arrival <strong>of</strong> trades while<br />

Hasbrouck (1991) estimates a vector autoregression (VAR) <strong>in</strong>volv<strong>in</strong>g trade and<br />

midquote returns. Both methodologies have modest data requirements. To estimate<br />

the model by Easley et al. (1996) one only needs to count the number <strong>of</strong> buyer and<br />

seller <strong>in</strong>itiated trades per trad<strong>in</strong>g day to estimate the probability <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>formed trad<strong>in</strong>g<br />

(PIN), the central adverse selection measure <strong>in</strong> this framework. As it allows a<br />

structural <strong>in</strong>terpretation <strong>of</strong> the model parameter estimates the methodology is quite<br />

popular <strong>in</strong> empirical research. Hasbrouck’s VAR methodology is not based on a<br />

formal model, but the reduced form VAR equations are compatible with a general<br />

class <strong>of</strong> microstructure models. The adverse selection measure is given by the<br />

cumulative effect <strong>of</strong> a trade <strong>in</strong>novation on the midquote return. To estimate the<br />

model, standard trade and quote data are sufficient.<br />

Both methodologies are not specifically designed for limit order markets, but<br />

rather for market maker systems. Accord<strong>in</strong>gly, their ma<strong>in</strong> applications have been to<br />

analyze NYSE and NASDAQ stocks. In the present paper, the data generat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

process, the theoretical background and the empirical methodology are quite<br />

different. However, we reach the same conclusion as Hasbrouck (1991) and Easley<br />

et al. (1996). The Spearman rank correlation <strong>of</strong> the market capitalization and the<br />

estimated standardized adverse selection component τ (us<strong>in</strong>g only the results for<br />

those 22 out <strong>of</strong> 30 stocks for which the model is not rejected at 1% significance<br />

level) is −0.928 (p-value

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