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Pierre Giot . Joachim Grammig<br />

How large is liquidity risk <strong>in</strong> an automated<br />

auction market?<br />

Abstract We <strong>in</strong>troduce a new empirical methodology that models liquidity risk<br />

over short time periods for impatient traders who submit market orders. Us<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Value-at-Risk type measures, we quantify the liquidity risk premia for portfolios<br />

and <strong>in</strong>dividual stocks traded on the automated auction market Xetra. The specificity<br />

<strong>of</strong> our approach relies on the adequate econometric modell<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> the<br />

potential price impact <strong>in</strong>curred by the liquidation <strong>of</strong> a portfolio. We study the<br />

sensitivity <strong>of</strong> liquidity risk towards portfolio size and traders’ time horizon, and<br />

<strong>in</strong>terpret its diurnal variation <strong>in</strong> the light <strong>of</strong> market microstructure theory.<br />

1 Introduction<br />

In economics and f<strong>in</strong>ance, the notion <strong>of</strong> liquidity is generally conceived as the<br />

ability to trade quickly a large volume with m<strong>in</strong>imal price impact. In an attempt to<br />

grasp the concept more precisely, Kyle (1985) identifies three dimensions <strong>of</strong><br />

liquidity: tightness (reflected <strong>in</strong> the bid–ask spread), depth (the amount <strong>of</strong> onesided<br />

volume that can be absorbed by the market without caus<strong>in</strong>g a revision <strong>of</strong> the<br />

bid-ask prices), and resiliency (the speed <strong>of</strong> return to equilibrium). In modern<br />

automated auction markets, the liquidity supply solely depends on the state <strong>of</strong> the<br />

electronic order book which consists <strong>of</strong> previously entered, non-executed limit buy<br />

and sell orders. This set <strong>of</strong> stand<strong>in</strong>g orders determ<strong>in</strong>es the price-volume rela-<br />

P. Giot<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Adm<strong>in</strong>istration & CEREFIM, University <strong>of</strong> Namur,<br />

Rempart de la Vierge, 8, 5000 Namur, Belgium<br />

P. Giot<br />

CORE, Université catholique de Louva<strong>in</strong>, Louva<strong>in</strong>, Belgium<br />

E-mail: pierre.giot@fundp.ac.be<br />

J. Grammig (*)<br />

Faculty <strong>of</strong> Economics, University <strong>of</strong> Tüb<strong>in</strong>gen, Mohlstrasse 36, 72074 Tüb<strong>in</strong>gen, Germany<br />

E-mail: joachim.grammig@uni-tueb<strong>in</strong>gen.de<br />

J. Grammig<br />

Centre for F<strong>in</strong>ancial Research, Cologne, Germany

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