SAVE THE DATE - Hypoport AG

Real Estate
Real Estate
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Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
---------- Stoxx Real Estate,
DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector
Analyst(s):
Jean-Marie Caucheteux Bank Degroof
jeanmarie.caucheteux@degroof.be
+32 2 287 99 20
Dries Dury Bank Degroof
dries.dury@degroof.be
+32 2 287 91 76
Analyser
Publication Monthly ESN Real Estate Metrics
The facts: Today we are publishing our monthly ESN Real Estate Metrics,
entitled “A dividend doesn‟t make a summer”.
Our analysis:
Total return
(%)
French
REITs
CAC40
Page 11 of 80 European Securities Network
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Dutch
REITs
AEX Belgian
REITs
BEL20
April 2012 -2.8 -5.8 -5.7 -3.6 1.8 -2.9
Year-to-date 8.2 2.3 7.7 0.2 7.2 8.5
Sources: Bloomberg, ESN Research.
“Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It's to see my dividends
coming in” (J.D. Rockefeller). Total return (i.e. price + dividend return) of REITs
was boosted by dividend returns in April, especially in France. Nevertheless,
total return in April was largely negative for most REITs (except Belgian REITs),
weighing on year-to-date performances, which are still strong however.
Several REITs already published 1Q12 results, which evidenced strong
performance coming from France by the retail REITs. We estimate like-for-like
rental growth to be about 4% for Unibail-Rodamco. Klépierre reported 2.4% likefor-like
rental growth, which was somewhat held back by weak performance in
peripheral countries. Mercialys reported a 4.9% like-for-like rents growth. The
latter issued a EUR 650m with a maturity of 7 years at an interest rate of
4.125%, which was oversubscribed 8 times. Gecina‟s results were negatively
impacted by an increase in its vacancy rate of 1.7 p.p. Cofinimmo released a
like-for-like rents growth of 0.9% and a stable portfolio value.
We initiated coverage on Corio last month with an accumulate rating and a TP
of EUR 39, which is justified by the attractive valuation multiples and the quality
of the portfolio and management in our view. We published a detailed company
report on 24 April 2012 (Shopping centres at a discount).
During the month of April, our top picks showed a mixed performance, which on
average (0.2%) was better than the total companies under coverage (-1.2%).
VIB total return was up by 4.6%, Technopolis by 1.8%, while VastNed Retail,
which was our best performer in March (18.9%), lost 5.7%. We believe that
VastNed‟s underperformance was mainly linked to its exposure to Iberia (19%),
which was also the reason for us to drop Beni-Stabili from our top picks last
month; Beni-Stabili lost 10.1% in April.
Despite the inclusion of Technopolis in our top pick list and a modest but
positive and above average performance in April, we have replaced the stock by
Citycon, which offers a slightly bigger upside since the recent reviewed TP and
the upgrade of the recommendation from accumulate to buy.