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Recordati
Italy/Healthcare Analyser
Recordati (Accumulate)
Accumulate
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 07/05/2012
Target price: EUR
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
5.21
7.20
RECI.MI/REC IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,088
Current N° of shares (m) 209
Free float 44%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 380,689
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 7.81
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 5.14
Abs. perf. 1 mth -6.30%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -13.97%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -28.31%
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
Sales (m) 762 819 877
EBITDA (m) 195 194 215
EBITDA margin 25.5% 23.7% 24.6%
EBIT (m) 163 165 185
EBIT margin 21.5% 20.1% 21.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 116 116 131
ROCE 15.2% 14.3% 15.5%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 56 38 (7)
Net Debt/Equity 0.1 0.1 0.0
Debt/EBITDA 0.3 0.2 0.0
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 49.5 49.4 69.5
EV/Sales 1.6 1.4 1.3
EV/EBITDA 6.4 5.9 5.1
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.4 5.9 5.1
EV/EBIT 7.6 7.0 6.0
P/E (adj.) 10.1 9.4 8.3
P/BV 2.0 1.7 1.5
OpFCF yield 8.0% 11.5% 9.8%
Dividend yield 5.8% 5.8% 6.2%
EPS (adj.) 0.55 0.55 0.63
BVPS 2.84 3.10 3.42
DPS 0.30 0.30 0.32
8.0 vvdsvdvsdy
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
Source: Factset
RECORDATI FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)
Shareholders: Recordati Family 56%;
Analyst(s):
Paola Saglietti, Banca Akros
paola.saglietti@bancaakros.it
+39 02 4344 4287
Q1 12 preview
The facts: Q1 12 results are due out today (Conference call at 4:00 pm CET).
Our analysis: during the annual shareholders‟ meeting in April, the management
already announced that Q1 12 sales recorded a growth of 11.0% Y/Y at EUR
219.6m, especially driven by the growth of the international business (+14.5%).
We expect a steady positive roll-out of Zanipress, pitavastatin and silodosin in
several Western European countries. Furthermore, we expect Recordati to be able
to considerably offset the effects of new Italian regulation thanks to the wide local
product portfolio.
We forecast the profitability to be substantially flat compared to the same period of
the previous year.
The following table shows our sales and profitability forecast.
RECORDATI: Q1 12e preview
Page 69 of 80 European Securities Network
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Q1 11a Q1 12e %Chg. FY 12 guidance
Sales 197.8 219.6 +11.0% 810 - 830
EBIT 44.3 45.0 +1.6% 160 - 170
EBIT margin 22.4% 20.5%
Source: Company Data and BANCA AKROS estimates
Conclusion & Action: we are confirming our Accumulate recommendation and
our target price of EUR 7.2 per share calculated based on our DCF Model (WACC
8.6% and 1.2% perpetual growth rate).