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Deutsche Post<br />
Germany/Industrial Transportation & Motorways Analyser<br />
Deutsche Post (Buy)<br />
Buy<br />
Recommendation unchanged<br />
Share price: EUR<br />
closing price as of 07/05/2012<br />
Target price: EUR<br />
Target Price unchanged<br />
Reuters/Bloomberg<br />
14.26<br />
17.00<br />
DPWGn.DE/DPW GR<br />
Market capitalisation (EURm) 17,241<br />
Current N° of shares (m) 1,209<br />
Free float 69%<br />
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 4,715,031<br />
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 57<br />
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 14.83<br />
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 9.13<br />
Abs. perf. 1 mth 0.74%<br />
Abs. perf. 3 mth 9.06%<br />
Abs. perf. 12 mth 5.71%<br />
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e<br />
Sales (m) 52,829 53,637 56,121<br />
EBITDA (m) 3,710 3,872 4,124<br />
EBITDA margin 7.0% 7.2% 7.3%<br />
EBIT (m) 2,436 2,537 2,717<br />
EBIT margin 4.6% 4.7% 4.8%<br />
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 1,393 1,424 1,569<br />
ROCE 8.6% 8.2% 8.6%<br />
Net debt/(cash) (m) (938) (949) (1,141)<br />
Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.1 -0.1<br />
Debt/EBITDA -0.3 -0.2 -0.3<br />
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.4 14.7 9.7<br />
EV/Sales 0.3 0.4 0.4<br />
EV/EBITDA 4.9 5.4 5.1<br />
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.9 5.4 5.1<br />
EV/EBIT 7.4 8.3 7.7<br />
P/E (adj.) 10.3 12.1 11.0<br />
P/BV 1.3 1.5 1.4<br />
OpFCF yield 6.1% 5.9% 7.7%<br />
Dividend yield 4.9% 4.9% 5.3%<br />
EPS (adj.) 1.15 1.18 1.30<br />
BVPS 9.11 9.70 10.29<br />
DPS 0.70 0.70 0.75<br />
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Source: Factset<br />
Shareholders: KfW 31%;<br />
Analyst(s):<br />
DEUTSCHE POST DAX30 (Rebased)<br />
Jochen Rothenbacher, CEFA, Equinet Bank<br />
jochen.rothenbacher@equinet-ag.de<br />
+49 69 58997 415<br />
Strong Q1 2012 results<br />
The facts: DPW published Q1 2012 results this morning. The company is hosting<br />
a conference call at 14:00 CET today.<br />
EURm Q1 2012 Q1 2012 yoy equinet Consensus<br />
Sales 13,364 12,809 4% 12,995 13,063<br />
EBIT 691 629 10% 647 656<br />
Net profit 533 325 64% 507 519<br />
EPS (€) 0.44 0.27 64% 0.42 0.43<br />
Source: Dt. Post, I quiry Financial, equinet<br />
Our analysis:<br />
For Q1 2012, DPW reported a sales increase of 4.3% to EUR13.4bn, which is<br />
above our forecast and consensus expecting about EUR13bn. EBIT increased by<br />
10% to EUR691m, which is also clearly better than the forecast of about<br />
EUR650m (equinet: EUR647m, consensus: EUR656m). This was mainly driven<br />
by a stronger than expected performance of Mail. Consequently, the net profit of<br />
EUR533m and EPS of EUR0.44 is also better than the forecasts. As a reminder,<br />
net profit benefits from a positive deconsolidation effect from the Postbank assets<br />
of EUR186m.<br />
Divisional EBIT distribution in Q1 2012: Mail EUR393m (equinet forecast:<br />
EUR379m, consensus: EUR368m), Express EUR231m (equinet: EUR221m,<br />
consensus: EUR231m), Global Forwarding/ Freight EUR87m (equinet: EUR76m,<br />
consensus: EUR75m), Supply Chain EUR91m (equinet: EUR81m, consensus:<br />
EUR87m) and Other EUR-111m (equinet: EUR-110m).<br />
Strong performance of Mail: The division continued to profit from<br />
flourishing online shopping and boosted the pace of its growth once again<br />
thanks to its broad range of products and services that are tailored specifically to<br />
meet customers' needs. While volume climbed by 14%, revenues rose by 13%<br />
to EUR844m (equinet forecast: EUR808m or 8% growth yoy) during the first<br />
quarter. As a result, the company's thriving parcel business generated nearly onequarter<br />
of total revenues in the Mail division and, in combination with strict cost<br />
management, contributed to the desired stabilization of the division's profitability.<br />
Guidance confirmed: Following the company's successful performance in the<br />
first three months of the year, it is confirming its guidance for 2012 and continues<br />
to forecast Group EBIT to reach between EUR2.5bn and EUR2.6bn (equinet<br />
forecast: EUR2.537bn). As stated before, the earnings of the MAIL division<br />
should total between EUR1.0bn and EUR1.1bn. DHL's operating earnings are still<br />
expected to rise to around EUR1.9bn. Corporate Center/Other expenditures are<br />
forecast to again total about EUR400m. In addition, the Group continues to project<br />
that its consolidated net profit adjusted for effects related to the Postbank<br />
transaction will increase in line with the operating business.<br />
Conclusion & Action: DPW reported strong Q1 2012 results beating our<br />
expectations in all lines. Especially the Mail division did better than expected and<br />
recorded 13% revenue growth in the German parcel business. We maintain our<br />
price target of EUR17 and reiterate our Buy recommendation. The good result<br />
should trigger a share price increase today.<br />
Page 17 of 80 European Securities Network<br />
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
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