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Casino Guichard-P<br />
France/Food & Drug Retailers Analyser<br />
Casino Guichard-P (Buy)<br />
Buy<br />
Recommendation unchanged<br />
Share price: EUR<br />
closing price as of 07/05/2012<br />
Target price: EUR<br />
Target Price unchanged<br />
Reuters/Bloomberg<br />
73.41<br />
84.00<br />
CASP.PA/CO FP<br />
Market capitalisation (EURm) 8,101<br />
Current N° of shares (m) 110<br />
Free float 45%<br />
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 277,380<br />
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 22<br />
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 75.62<br />
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 52.64<br />
Abs. perf. 1 mth 1.82%<br />
Abs. perf. 3 mth 7.04%<br />
Abs. perf. 12 mth -0.80%<br />
Key financials (EUR) 12/09 12/10e 12/11e<br />
Sales (m) 32,145 34,933 41,402<br />
EBITDA (m) 2,194 2,434 2,849<br />
EBITDA margin 6.8% 7.0% 6.9%<br />
EBIT (m) 1,409 1,580 1,838<br />
EBIT margin 4.4% 4.5% 4.4%<br />
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 701 636 668<br />
ROCE 7.5% 7.9% 7.8%<br />
Net debt/(cash) (m) 5,102 4,800 6,893<br />
Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.7<br />
Debt/EBITDA 2.3 2.0 2.4<br />
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.3 5.6 4.7<br />
EV/Sales 0.6 0.5 0.5<br />
EV/EBITDA 8.6 7.6 6.7<br />
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.5 7.6 6.7<br />
EV/EBIT 13.4 11.7 10.4<br />
P/E (adj.) 12.2 15.7 13.3<br />
P/BV 1.1 1.2 1.0<br />
OpFCF yield 11.4% 9.5% 6.2%<br />
Dividend yield 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%<br />
EPS (adj.) 6.18 5.59 5.88<br />
BVPS 69.44 72.20 74.64<br />
DPS 3.18 3.34 3.59<br />
80 vvdsvdvsdy<br />
75<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12<br />
Source: Factset<br />
Analyst(s):<br />
CASINO GUICHARD-P Stoxx Food & Drug Retailers (Rebased)<br />
Christian Devismes, CM - CIC Securities<br />
christian.devismes@cmcics.com<br />
+33 1 45 96 77 63<br />
Pao de Açucar: 30.1% increase in EBITDA in Q1-2012<br />
The facts: The Pao de Açucar group has published quarterly earnings very<br />
slightly above expectations. The group's consolidated EBITDA stand at BRL758m<br />
(+30.1%), which is a little above the consensus forecast (BRL739.3m, source:<br />
Bloomberg).<br />
Our analysis: GPA Food (food banners) reported a 30bp rise in its EBITDA<br />
margin to 7.4%. The traditional retail banners recorded a 10bp gain to 8.1% and<br />
the group has above all benefited from the strong improvement reported by its<br />
Cash & Carry banner Assai (+250bp to 3.8%). We do not know if the earlier Easter<br />
holidays (which this year fell in Q1 vs Q2 last year) played a positive role.<br />
Viavarejo posted a 150bp gain in its EBITDA margin to 4.8%, thanks notably to<br />
synergies drawn from the merger between Casas Bahia and Ponto Frio. Financial<br />
expenses linked to customer receivables grew by 50bp (by percentage of sales) to<br />
reach 3.5%. This increase is linked to the rise in the weight of credit cards in the<br />
formation of the banners' revenue, which occurred in Q2-2011.<br />
Pao de Açucar group: gross margin, EBITDA & UOI by percentage of sales<br />
------------ GPA Food ------------ ----- Viavarejo (former Globex) -----<br />
By % of revenue Q1-11<br />
Q2, Q3 &<br />
Q4<br />
2011 Q1-12 Q1-11<br />
Q2, Q3<br />
& Q4<br />
2011 Q1-12<br />
Revenue in BRLm 5,984 19,593 25,578 6,656 4,884 16,133 21,017 5,491<br />
Gross margin (%) 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.9 29.4 28.8 27.9<br />
EBITDA (%) 7.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 3.3 5.8 5.2 4.8<br />
UOI (%) 5.0 5.6 5.5 5.2 2.6 5.2 4.6 4.1<br />
UOI in BRLm 297 1,104 1,401 346 127 832 960 226<br />
Source: GPA, CM-CIC Securities<br />
Conclusion & Action: The Brazilian group will hold a conference call at 4pm<br />
CET.<br />
Page 16 of 80 European Securities Network<br />
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
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