You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
ING Group<br />
Netherlands/Banks Analyser<br />
ING Group (Buy)<br />
Buy<br />
Recommendation unchanged<br />
Share price: EUR<br />
closing price as of 07/05/2012<br />
Target price: EUR<br />
Target Price unchanged<br />
Reuters/Bloomberg<br />
5.29<br />
9.50<br />
ING.AS/INGA NA<br />
Market capitalisation (EURm) 20,275<br />
Current N° of shares (m) 3,832<br />
Free float 100%<br />
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 30,365,629<br />
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 196<br />
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 8.96<br />
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 4.49<br />
Abs. perf. 1 mth -8.93%<br />
Abs. perf. 3 mth -27.82%<br />
Abs. perf. 12 mth -41.11%<br />
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e<br />
Total Revenue (m) 16,121 19,762 19,175<br />
Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 4,818 8,622 8,541<br />
Operating profit (OP) 3,748 7,302 7,741<br />
Earnings Before Tax (m) 3,748 7,302 7,741<br />
Net Profit (adj.) (m) 5,859 4,863 4,772<br />
Shareholders Equity (m) 44,379 48,323 52,598<br />
Tangible BV (m) -18,104 48,323 52,600<br />
RWA (m) 329,000 335,000 334,998<br />
ROE (adj.) -23.7% 10.0% 10.3%<br />
Tier1 Ratio 11.3% 12.4% 0.0%<br />
Cost/Income 70.1% 56.4% 55.5%<br />
P/PPP 4.4 2.4 2.3<br />
P/E (adj.) 5.0 4.2 4.2<br />
P/BV 0.5 0.4 0.4<br />
P/NAV nm 0.4 0.4<br />
Dividend Yield 0.0% 7.2% 6.6%<br />
PPPPS 1.26 2.25 2.26<br />
EPS (adj.) 1.12 1.27 1.26<br />
BVPS 11.58 12.61 13.90<br />
NAVPS -4.72 12.61 13.90<br />
DPS 0.00 0.38 0.35<br />
9.0 vvdsvdvsdy<br />
8.5<br />
8.0<br />
7.5<br />
7.0<br />
6.5<br />
6.0<br />
5.5<br />
5.0<br />
4.5<br />
4.0<br />
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12<br />
Source: Factset<br />
Shareholders:<br />
Analyst(s):<br />
ING GROUP Stoxx Banks (Rebased)<br />
Lemer Salah, SNS Securities<br />
Lemer.salah@snssecurities.nl<br />
+312 0 5508516<br />
1Q12 results are expected to be challenged (Preview)<br />
The facts: ING will report its 1Q12 results on Wednesday 9 th of May 2012.<br />
Our analysis:<br />
ING‟s retail banking activities are expected to have performed strong<br />
across all geographies. ING‟s retail banking margins are expected to have<br />
been pressured in 1Q12. ING‟s commercial banking pre-tax underlying<br />
result is expected to have declined by 29% yoy to EUR 595m due to tough<br />
market conditions.<br />
The pre-tax underlying result of ING‟s insurance activities is expected to<br />
have declined significantly to a loss of EUR 235m. This is mainly<br />
attributable to a hedging loss on its closed block US Variable Annuity<br />
book.<br />
We expect that ING‟s core Tier 1 ratio has strengthened to a 10.6% core<br />
Tier 1 ratio at the end of 1Q12. This include the proceeds of ING Direct<br />
US a pro-forma basis.<br />
Conclusion & Action: Despite margin pressure we expect that ING‟s retail<br />
banking activities have performed strong in 1Q12. However, its insurance and<br />
commercial banking activities are expected to have performed weak due to<br />
challenging market conditions.<br />
Page 25 of 80 European Securities Network<br />
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Change language