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Portuguese Banks II
Banks
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Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
---------- Stoxx Banks,
Analyst(s):
DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector
André Rodrigues Caixa-Banco de Investimento
andre.rodrigues@caixabi.pt
+351 21 389 68 39
A. Loans
Page 13 of 80 European Securities Network
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Mar-12 Mar-11 YoY Fev-12 MoM
Private individuals (1. + 2- + 3.) 138,751 141,749 -2.30% 139,224 -0.34%
Non-performing loans - private 4,899 4,164 17.65% 4,867 0.66%
As a % of loans 3.53% 2.94% 0.59 pp 3.50% 0.03 pp
1. Consumption 14,501 15,228 -7.40% 14,622 -0.83%
Non-performing loans - Consumption 1,551 1,302 19.12% 1,549 0.13%
As a % of loans 10.70% 8.55% 2.15 pp 10.59% 0.1 pp
2. Housing 112,817 114,511 -1.40% 113,112 -0.26%
Non-performing loans - Housing 2,190 1,963 11.56% 2,169 0.97%
As a % of loans 1.94% 1.71% 0.23 pp 1.92% 0.024 pp
3. Other purposes 11,433 12,010 -4.10% 11,490 -0.50%
Non-performing loans - Other 1,158 899 28.81% 1,149 0.78%
As a % of loans 10.13% 7.49% 2.64 pp 10.00% 0.13 pp
Corporate 111,751 114,784 -4.40% 113,296 -1.36%
Non-performing loans - Corporate 8,293 5,385 54.00% 8,290 0.04%
As a % of loans 7.42% 4.69% 2.73 pp 7.32% 0.1 pp
Total Loans (Private + Corporate) 250,502 256,533 -2.35% 252,520 -0.80%
Non-performing loans 13,192 9,549 38.15% 13,157 0.27%
As a % of loans 5.27% 3.72% 1.54 pp 5.21% 0.06 pp
B. Deposits
Analyser
Bank of Portugal statistical data March 2012 (NPL ratio
at 3.53% on private and 7.42% on corporate segment).
Total NPL (private + corporate) at 5.27%
The facts: Bank of Portugal published the statistical data regarding the evolution
of credit and deposits in Portugal (latest data refers to the end of March).
Our analysis: We present below the summary of the key data disclosed.
Exhibit 1: Portuguese Banks – Credit and Deposits data, March 2012
Deposits - Private individuals 131,328 120,358 9.11% 131,291 0.03%
Deposits - Corporate 31,479 32,488 -3.11% 32,313 -2.58%
Total Deposits 162,807 152,846 6.52% 163,604 -0.49%
Source: BoP & CaixaBI Research. Data as EUR thousands and excludes securitised
loans. YoY variations adjusted for write-offs and reclassifications.
March figures presented a 6bps deterioration in the total NPL ratio (private +
corporate segments) to 5.27% from 5.21% in February, whereas Portuguese
banks continued to deleverage, reducing volumes (YoY decrease close to 7.4%
in Consumption, 1.4% in Mortgage and 4.4% in corporate segment).
We reinforce the idea that NPL ratios should continue its negative trend in the
next months following the deterioration in the macroeconomic fundamentals in
Portugal. The total amount of NPL reached EUR 13.19bn (vs. EUR 9.55bn in
March 2011). We also highlight the total weight (%) of NPL in some segments,
namely Construction (NPL at 13.8%) and Real Estate activities (9.5%).
The interest rate paid in new deposits (average) remained at 3.74% (as of
February 2012) in private segment, and increased 4bps to 3.01% on deposits
made by companies (vs. 2.97% in February). These figures compare with 4.53%
and 4.49% in October 2011 (-79bps and -148bps in this 5months, respectively).
We remember that this decrease is being driven by the regulation published by
Bank of Portugal (implying a penalty in Core TIER I to deposits with
remuneration above Euribor and later adjusted with higher penalties (in force
only since April).