SAVE THE DATE - Hypoport AG

PostNL
Netherlands/Industrial Transportation & Motorways Analyser
PostNL (Buy)
Buy
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 07/05/2012
Target price: EUR
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
3.58
5.85
PTNL.AS/PNL NA
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,450
Current N° of shares (m) 405
Free float 77%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 3,722,679
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 15
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 16.42
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 2.03
Abs. perf. 1 mth -19.39%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 15.08%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -77.98%
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
Sales (m) 4,297 4,414 4,507
EBITDA (m) 485 552 593
EBITDA margin 11.3% 12.5% 13.2%
EBIT (m) 375 439 479
EBIT margin 8.7% 10.0% 10.6%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 221 239 233
ROCE 291.8% 189.2% 153.4%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,002 (619) (297)
Net Debt/Equity 2.4 -0.5 -0.8
Debt/EBITDA 2.1 -1.1 -0.5
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.8 5.5 6.1
EV/Sales 0.3 0.2 0.3
EV/EBITDA 2.9 1.8 2.1
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.3 2.2 2.7
EV/EBIT 3.8 2.2 2.6
P/E (adj.) 4.0 5.5 5.6
P/BV 2.5 1.1 4.1
OpFCF yield -5.2% -1.2% 1.4%
Dividend yield 5.9% 5.0% 15.1%
EPS (adj.) 0.61 0.65 0.63
BVPS 0.99 3.13 0.86
DPS 0.21 0.18 0.54
18 vvdsvdvsdy
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
Source: Factset
POSTNL AEX (Rebased)
Shareholders: Mackenzie 10%; Causeway 7%;
Manning&Napier 6%;
Analyst(s):
Gert Steens, SNS Securities
gert.steens@snssecurities.nl
+312 0 5508639
12Q1: Slow delivery, not an issue
The facts: PostNL released first quarter data. Press release at
http://bit.ly/IRzWRo.
Dutch mail volumes -7.9% (as expected, q4/q4 -5%), price +2.4% (expected
+6%, q4/q4 +7%), margin 9% (expected 10%, 11q1 12%).
Parcels volumes +4.6% (expected +2%, q4/q4 +4%), price +0.6% (expected
+0.5%, q4/q4 +1.5%), margin 13.7% (expected 17%, 11q1 17%)
Adjusted EBIT (“Underlying Operating Profit” excluding Other) EUR 79m
(expected 94m, 11q1 100m)
Net debt EUR 1.0bn, TNT Express valued at EUR 9.26 per share. Equity
1.0bn.
Outlook: no change to plans and stated outlook. Pension fund coverage ratio
100%, top-ups still under discussion. CLA negotiations, in which pensions are
a major issue, are progressing without comment. No new news on dividends
and other cash spending plans.
Reorganisation hiccups: has had an impact but no change to plans and
programmes, only to implementation momentum.
PostNL 2010 2011 2,011
Revenue
Mail NL 712
Parcels 157
International 381
Other 89
Intra-company (120)
Group Revenue 1,219
EBIT (=UOP)
Mail NL 124
Parcels 21
International -
Other 29
Reported UNDERLYING Operating Profit 174
Adjusted EBIT (excl. "Other") 145
Cash-out restructuring (21)
Cash-out pensions (53)
Reported Underlying Cash Operating Profit 100
UOP % revenue
Page 66 of 80 European Securities Network
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
2,011
2011 2012E
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
612
153
371
94
(118)
1,112
76
26
(2)
20
577 545
146 143
352
64
(115)
1,024
367
62
(121)
996
40 17
21 16
Mail NL 17.4% 12.4% 6.9% 3.1% 15.7% 9.0%
Parcels 13.4% 17.0% 14.4% 11.2% 15.1% 13.7%
International 0.0% -0.5% -0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3%
Underlying Operating Profit % revenue 14.3% 10.8% 8.7% 7.0% 8.5% 11.6%
Adj EBIT % Revenues (excl "Other") 11.9% 9.0% 5.8% 3.7% 11.8% 7.4%
Source: Company data, SNS Securities estimates
Our analysis: Disappointing margins because of pricing in Dutch mail and
operating costs in Parcels. In Mail, we may have underestimated the positive
seasonal mix effect in 11Q4. In Parcels, the new logistic model makes costs hard
to estimate in the short term. No need to change estimates or investment case.
Balance sheet as expected: with TNT Exit at EUR 9.5 and IAS19 pension asset
wipe-out, pro-forma Equity would stand at c EUR 100m and net debt would
convert to net cash of EUR 540m.
Conclusion & Action: Buy, target 5.85 for the fundamental value of conglomerate
cash flows.
120
100
(17)
(28)
75
(2)
30
89
59
(21)
(43)
25
4
33
70
37
(15)
(34)
21
695
166
377
65
(138)
1,165
109
25
4
9
147
138
(15)
(33)
99
579
161
391
62
(132)
1,061
52
22
5
44
123
79
(22)
(52)
49