SAVE THE DATE - Hypoport AG

Astaldi
Italy/Construction & Materials Analyser
Astaldi (Buy)
Buy
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 07/05/2012
Target price: EUR
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
5.25
7.60
AST.MI/AST IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 516
Current N° of shares (m) 98
Free float 48%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 268,774
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 6.26
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.64
Abs. perf. 1 mth -8.14%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -4.46%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -8.14%
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
Sales (m) 2,357 2,649 3,006
EBITDA (m) 257 292 324
EBITDA margin 10.9% 11.0% 10.8%
EBIT (m) 198 225 248
EBIT margin 8.4% 8.5% 8.2%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 68 84 95
ROCE 16.4% 14.4% 14.3%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 480 636 666
Net Debt/Equity 1.0 1.1 1.1
Debt/EBITDA 1.9 2.2 2.1
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 3.4 3.4 3.6
EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.4
EV/EBITDA 3.8 4.0 3.7
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.8 4.0 3.7
EV/EBIT 4.9 5.2 4.8
P/E (adj.) 7.1 6.1 5.5
P/BV 1.0 1.0 0.8
OpFCF yield -9.8% 11.4% 14.1%
Dividend yield 3.2% 4.1% 4.6%
EPS (adj.) 0.70 0.86 0.96
BVPS 4.77 5.48 6.27
DPS 0.17 0.21 0.24
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6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
Source: Factset
ASTALDI FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)
Shareholders: Astaldi family 52%;
Analyst(s):
Francesco Sala, Banca Akros
francesco.sala@bancaakros.it
+39 02 4344 4240
Sound results notwithstanding harsh winter
The facts: Astaldi released its Q1 12 results yesterday before market closing. A
conference call is scheduled on May 14 at 3:00 PM CET.
Our analysis: Astaldi‟s results were higher than our estimates at a net income
level mainly as a result of lower than expected financial charges and the
contribution of the hydroelectric power plant in Chile (stakes at equity). EBIT was
almost in line with our estimate since a lower than expected EBITDA was offset by
lower D&A. The decrease in EBITDA margin to 10.3% from 12.6% of Q4 11 and
11.0% of Q1 11 is related to a greater incidence of indirect production (performed
through consortia) during Q1 which resulted in decrease in EBITDA margin, made
up at EBIT level through a lower incidence of amortisation and depreciation.
Contract revenues 489.4 504.5
Page 42 of 80 European Securities Network
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Q1 11 Q1 12a Y/Y% Q1 12e
499.6
Total revenues 511.0 522.3 2.2% 523.9
Ebitda 56.4 53.9 -4.3% 59.5
Ebitda margin 11.0% 10.3%
11.4%
Ebit 44.3 44.9 1.2% 45.6
Ebit margin 8.7% 8.6%
financial charges -16.5 -18.6
stakes at equity 0.0 2.4
8.7%
-20.2
Profit before taxes 27.8 28.6 3.0% 25.6
Taxes -10.5 -10.8
Net income 17.2 17.8 3.2% 15.9
Minorities 0.1 0.0
Net income 17.3 17.7 2.5% 15.7
Excellent new orders and backlog – at the end of Q1 12 the order backlog was
EUR 10.4bn with new orders accounting for EUR 907m.
Higher net debt after EUR 87m investments in concessions – Astaldi‟s net
debt increased from EUR 623.7m at the end of 2011 to EUR 703.0m at the end of
the first quarter. The main driver of this increase was the concession sector in
which the company invested EUR 87m in Q1 (Milas-Bodrum Airport, Gebxe Izmir
motorway).
2012 outlook – the company did not provide targets on 2012 but it confirmed its
focus on the development of the concession sector which, as from 2012, will
make a more significant contribution the group‟s results. Furthermore the company
stated that the new business plan, which is going to be presented in the next few
months, will be based on an increased use of project finance and private funding,
the development of new markets (Canada and Peru) and sectors (mining and
Latin America) as well as on commercial activities in traditional markets and
sectors.
Conclusion & Action: Astaldi‟s Q1 results were sound notwithstanding a harsh
winter. The new orders were excellent while the increase in net debt is consistent
with Astaldi‟s strategy and the development of greenfield concessions.
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-9.7
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