SAVE THE DATE - Hypoport AG

Agfa-Gevaert
Belgium/Electronic & Electrical Equipment Analyser
Agfa-Gevaert (Accumulate)
Accumulate
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 07/05/2012
Target price: EUR
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
1.58
2.50
AGFB.BR/AGFB BB
Market capitalisation (EURm) 265
Current N° of shares (m) 168
Free float 98%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 532,488
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 3.57
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 1.03
Abs. perf. 1 mth 0.64%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 3.27%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -53.53%
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
Sales (m) 3,023 3,056 3,105
EBITDA (m) 125 191 242
EBITDA margin 4.1% 6.3% 7.8%
EBIT (m) 36 106 158
EBIT margin 1.2% 3.5% 5.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) (8) 27 77
ROCE 1.3% 3.9% 5.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 267 247 171
Net Debt/Equity 0.3 0.8 0.5
Debt/EBITDA 2.1 1.3 0.7
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 7.0 9.8 25.9
EV/Sales 0.4 0.6 0.6
EV/EBITDA 8.6 9.4 7.1
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.6 9.4 7.1
EV/EBIT 29.8 17.0 10.9
P/E (adj.) nm 9.9 3.4
P/BV 0.2 1.0 0.8
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) (0.05) 0.16 0.46
BVPS 5.72 1.57 1.97
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
3.5 vvdsvdvsdy
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
Source: Factset
AGFA-GEVAERT EuroNext (Rebased)
Shareholders: Treasury Shares 2%;
Analyst(s):
Siddy Jobe, Bank Degroof
siddy.jobe@degroof.be
+32 (0) 2 287 9279
Preview 1Q12 - The traditional Pre-Drupa dip?
The facts: Agfa-Gevaert is scheduled to report its 1Q12 results on Wednesday,
May 9 before market opening. The associated conference call is scheduled the
same day at 3:30 pm (CET).
On May 15 Agfa-Geveart is organising an Analyst Event at Drupa, the world‟s
leading trade fair for the printed media industry that takes place every four years.
Approximately 1,850 exhibitors from more than 50 countries will be presents at the
fair. Given its four annual nature it matches the economic life time of a lot of
printing equipment. It is therefore the ideal place for printing companies to make
their investment decisions.
Early March the company indicated that given the rather unpredictable economic
environment, it was difficult to provide guidance. However assuming that raw
material prices will not substantially differ from their current levels, Agfa-Gevaert
expressed its ambition to restore its operational efficiency in order to reach a
double digit recurring EBITDA percentage in the medium to long term.
Our analysis: We expect 1Q12 to be a fairly weak quarter, especially vs. 1Q11
which was a strong quarter. While Agfa-Gevaert‟s profitability benefited from a
seasonal strong 4Q11, we expect this was not the case in 1Q12. Hence we expect
to see pressure on the 1Q12 gross margin due to manufacturing inefficiencies.
The company has worked hard on reducing its silver exposure, which resulted in a
steady volume decrease of silver, though also led to a lower capacity utilisation
rate. Agfa-Geavert already announced it has plans to undertake restructuring
measures to restore profitability, though we expect these measures will not have
contributed positively to 1Q12. Moreover we expect lower Agfa Graphics
equipment sales in 1Q12 as customers were anticipating Drupa.
Considering our and consensus figures vs. the FY12 expectations we feel 1Q12
estimates should be in reach for Agfa-Gevaert, hence we don‟t expect an earnings
disappointment tomorrow.
Agfa-Gevaert : key figures 1Q11 FY11 1Q12e % Change % Change 1Q12 FY12e % Change
(EUR m) QoQ YoY Consensus YoY
Sales 736 3,023 732 -9.0% -0.5% 721 3,056 1.1%
- Agfa Graphics 386 1,596 380 -9.2% -1.6% 377 1,598 0.1%
- Agfa Healthcare 287 1,177 294 -11.7% 2.5% 282 1,230 4.5%
- Agfa Specialty Products 63 250 59 8.3% -7.1% 62 228 -8.8%
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Gross profit 231 846 199 -8.6% -13.8% 883 4.3%
Margin 31.4% 28.0% 27.2% 28.9%
EBIT before restructuring 40 129 25 -41.8% -37.4% 23 157 21.4%
Margin 5.4% 4.3% 3.4% 5.1%
- Agfa Graphics 17.0 48.0 8.7 -29.6% -48.6% 7.0 63.0 31.2%
Margin 4.4% 3.0% 2.3% 3.9%
- Agfa Healthcare 20.1 78.5 16.7 -46.9% -16.8% 17.0 91.3 16.3%
Margin 7.0% 6.7% 5.7% 7.4%
- Agfa Specialty Products 3.5 5.2 0.6 -158.5% -83.3% 0.0 6.3 20.6%
Margin 5.6% 4.1% 1.0% 2.1%
- Not allocated cost -0.6 -2.7 -1.0 -1100.0% 66.7% 0.0 -4.0 48.1%
Restructuring Charges -8 -93 -14 -51 -45.2%
EBIT after restructuring 32 36 12 -196.2% -63.9% 10 106 193.2%
Margin 4.3% 1.2% 1.6% 3.5%
Non operating result -23 -84 -23 21.1% 0.0% -88 4.3%
Profit before taxes 9 -48 -11 -63.0% -227.3% 18 -137.4%
Taxes -4 -23 -6 -52.3% 43.2% -27 16.7%
Net profit (group share) 5.0 -69.0 -17.2 -60.0% -443.7% -11.0 -8.9 -87.1%
EPS 0.03 -0.44 -0.10 -60.0% -443.7% -0.07 -0.05 -87.8%
Conclusion & Action: We have an Accumulate rating and a TP of EUR 2.50.
Page 40 of 80 European Securities Network
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page