Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
Finmeccanica<br />
Italy/Aerospace & Defense Analyser<br />
Finmeccanica (Accumulate)<br />
Accumulate<br />
Recommendation unchanged<br />
Share price: EUR<br />
closing price as of 07/05/2012<br />
Target price: EUR<br />
Target Price unchanged<br />
Reuters/Bloomberg<br />
3.15<br />
5.00<br />
SIFI.MI/FNC IM<br />
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,820<br />
Current N° of shares (m) 578<br />
Free float 60%<br />
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 7,397,517<br />
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 37<br />
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 9.50<br />
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 2.62<br />
Abs. perf. 1 mth -13.94%<br />
Abs. perf. 3 mth -8.28%<br />
Abs. perf. 12 mth -65.75%<br />
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e<br />
Sales (m) 17,318 17,400 18,156<br />
EBITDA (m) (893) 1,754 1,900<br />
EBITDA margin nm 10.1% 10.5%<br />
EBIT (m) (2,386) 877 1,188<br />
EBIT margin nm 5.0% 6.5%<br />
Net Profit (adj.)(m) (754) 488 571<br />
ROCE -8.5% 9.0% 10.1%<br />
Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,443 3,655 3,699<br />
Net Debt/Equity 0.7 0.7 0.7<br />
Debt/EBITDA -3.9 2.1 1.9<br />
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (13.5) 5.5 5.8<br />
EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3<br />
EV/EBITDA nm 2.6 2.4<br />
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.9 2.3 2.4<br />
EV/EBIT nm 5.2 3.9<br />
P/E (adj.) nm 3.7 3.2<br />
P/BV 0.4 0.4 0.4<br />
OpFCF yield -71.4% 23.3% 18.6%<br />
Dividend yield 0.0% 5.5% 8.7%<br />
EPS (adj.) (1.30) 0.84 0.99<br />
BVPS 7.44 8.02 8.69<br />
DPS 0.00 0.17 0.27<br />
11 vvdsvdvsdy<br />
10<br />
9<br />
8<br />
7<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12<br />
Source: Factset<br />
FINMECCANICA Stoxx Aerospace & Defense (Rebased)<br />
Shareholders: Italian Government 32%; Tradewinds GI<br />
5%; Blackrock INC 2%;<br />
Analyst(s):<br />
Gabriele Gambarova, Banca Akros<br />
gabriele.gambarova@bancaakros.it<br />
+39 02 43 444 289<br />
The US’ Air Force likely to keep its C-27Js and possibly<br />
sel them to the ANG<br />
The facts: The US‟ House Armed Services Committee (“HASC”) has added USD<br />
2.8bn to the Pentagon‟s fiscal 2013 budget request for ships, aircraft and weapons<br />
in consistency with the resistance to further cuts in defence spending.<br />
Overall, the committee‟s bill provides USD 554bn in defence spending with<br />
additional USD 88bn for overseas contingency funds; these resources are USD<br />
29bn over the Pentagon‟s request (USD 525.4bn in base defence spending).<br />
We highlight that aircraft procurement rose USD 389m and that it includes<br />
now USD 138m to keep FNC’s C-27Js: the committee denied the Air Force the<br />
ability to use any money in 2013 “to divest or retire, or prepare to divest or retire,”<br />
C-27J aircraft. A series of reporting requirements after 2013 would need to be met<br />
before the aircraft could be disposed of, including an affordable spending analysis<br />
for the plane‟s operation by the Air National Guard.<br />
Our analysis: FNC sold 21 C-27J aircrafts to the US services, but the new budget<br />
terminated the programme a few months ago; the US Air Force was considering<br />
selling its C-27Js as second hand; this perspective would have jeopardized FNC‟s<br />
chances to sell its C-27Js to a couple of top US allies as Canada and Australia.<br />
Conclusion & Action: Today‟s news is good as it confirms that the US‟ Air<br />
Force‟s C-27Js will be kept in service until 2013 and possibly sold to the US Air<br />
National Guard, thus making the market scenario much more promising.<br />
Page 55 of 80 European Securities Network<br />
Please refer to important disclaimer on the last page
Change language