SAVE THE DATE - Hypoport AG

BPI
Portugal/Banks Analyser
BPI (Buy)
Buy
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 07/05/2012
Target price: EUR
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
0.40
1.05
BBPI.LS/BPI PL
Market capitalisation (EURm) 392
Current N° of shares (m) 990
Free float 29%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,167,704
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 1.17
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 0.38
Abs. perf. 1 mth -12.78%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -24.71%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -67.00%
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
Total Revenue (m) 1,020 1,019 1,003
Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) -164 334 304
Operating profit (OP) -357 193 182
Earnings Before Tax (m) -328 212 206
Net Profit (adj.) (m) -285 104 99
Shareholders Equity (m) 469 898 993
Tangible BV (m) 469 898 993
RWA (m) 25,182 26,055 26,510
ROE (adj.) -29.7% 15.2% 10.5%
Tier1 Ratio 9.0% 11.7% 10.7%
Cost/Income 67.2% 63.3% 65.8%
P/PPP -2.9 1.2 1.3
P/E (adj.) nm 3.8 3.9
P/BV 1.0 0.4 0.4
P/NAV 1.0 0.4 0.4
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PPPPS -0.17 0.34 0.31
EPS (adj.) -0.29 0.11 0.10
BVPS 0.47 0.91 1.00
NAVPS 0.47 0.91 1.00
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.20 vvdsvdvsdy
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
Source: Factset
BPI Stox x Banks (Rebased)
Shareholders: Caixabank 40%; Santoro Financial
Holding 19%;
Analyst(s):
André Rodrigues, Caixa-Banco de Investimento
andre.rodrigues@caixabi.pt
+351 21 389 68 39
Angolan company Santoro increases its stake to 19.43%
from 9.99% of BPI capital
The facts: Banco BPI informed the market that the Spanish bank CaixaBank sold
9.436% of its stake in the bank to the Angolan company Santoro Finance.
According to the statement sent to the Portuguese watchdog CMVM, CaixaBank
will sell that stake for an amount close to EUR 46.7m. The total amount of the deal
is equivalent to EUR 0.50 a share, implying a premium close to 26.3% vs. the EUR
0.396 of BPI´ shares last price.
Our analysis: According to the last available information, CaixaBank and Santoro
were already the major shareholders of BPI with 48.97% and 9.99%, respectively.
On the other side we highlight that, on April 22 nd , Banco BPI already announced
that CaixaBank bought the 18.87% stake of Itaú Unibanco in its share capital for a
total amount close to EUR 93.m (also equivalent to EUR0.50 a share). As a
consequence, with this operation the former 18.87% stake of Itaú was evenly
divided between these two shareholders.
Banco BPI: Shareholder structure after this operation:
Shareholder Number of shares % of capital
Caixabank 391,410,330 39.54%
Santoro 192,365,325 19.43%
Grupo Allianz 87,243,078 8.81%
HVF SGPS, S.A. 28,351,791 2.86%
"Free float" 283,605,094 28.65%
Treasury stock 7,024,382 0.71%
Voting rights limited to 20%
Even if the direct acquisition of a stake to CaixaBank seems somewhat surprisingly,
we highlight that the nature of this transaction is not unexpected as it follows some
news flow in the Portuguese press referring Santoro‟s intention to reinforce its stake
in Banco BPI.
On the other side, it is important to reger again that capital requirements remain
the major topic in Banco BPI investment case. According to BPI management,
BPI capital gap to comply with EBA 9% Core TIER I as of June 30, 2012 is close to
EUR 1.4bn.
In order to obtain that capital we consider that BPI will likely use the up to EUR
12bn public recapitalization line made available when Portugal was intervened
(potentially through the issue of “CoCo” bonds), probably mixed with a rights
issue operation.
In this context, we consider that the new regulation specifying the final conditions to
access this capital should be disclosed in the short term.
Page 48 of 80 European Securities Network
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