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Agennix
Germany/Biotechnology Analyser
Agennix (Buy)
Buy
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 07/05/2012
Target price: EUR
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
1.71
2.40
AGX.DE/AGX GR
Market capitalisation (EURm) 88
Current N° of shares (m) 51
Free float 27%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 8,773
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 3.51
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 1.50
Abs. perf. 1 mth -0.64%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 2.34%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -52.40%
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
Sales (m) 0 0 45
EBITDA (m) (45) (45) 9
EBITDA margin nm nm 20.3%
EBIT (m) (45) (46) 8
EBIT margin nm nm 18.5%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) (42) (47) 8
ROCE -31.0% -31.7% 5.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (44) (1) (45)
Net Debt/Equity -0.3 0.0 -0.4
Debt/EBITDA 1.0 0.0 -4.9
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (112.1) (119.1) 15.5
EV/Sales nm nm 0.9
EV/EBITDA nm nm 4.6
EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm nm 4.6
EV/EBIT nm nm 5.0
P/E (adj.) nm nm 11.2
P/BV 0.8 0.9 0.9
OpFCF yield -38.5% -48.7% 51.2%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) (0.99) (0.91) 0.15
BVPS 3.32 1.83 1.98
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
4.0 vvdsvdvsdy
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
Source: Factset
AGENNIX CDAX (Rebased)
Shareholders: Dievini Hopp 65%; Cain Family 8%;
Analyst(s):
Edouard Aubery, Equinet Bank
edouard.aubery@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 5899 7439
Q1’12 preview
The facts: Agennix xis due to release its Q1‟12 results on May 9.
Our analysis:
EUR m Q1 2012e Q1 2011 % 2012e 2011 %
Sales 0,0 0,0 n.m 0,0 0,0 n.m
EBIT -13,0 -10,5 23% -46,0 -45,5 1%
EBT -12,9 -11,5 12% -46,9 -42,6 10%
Net profit -12,9 -8,6 50% -46,9 -41,8 12%
EPS (€) -0,25 -0,21 20% -0,91 -0,98 -7%
net cash 30,2 66,1 -54% 0,7 43,9 -98%
Source: Agennix, equinet Research
Q1 P&L forecasts: While the failure of the OASIS trial in severe sepsis was
announced in early February, we expect still relatively high level of R&D in Q1. A
large chunk of the OASIS costs should have been paid upfront to the CRO, beside
additional expenses related to the closure of certain clinical sites should have
weighed in Q1. We expect R&D effort in the range of EUR10m. Admin costs
should be up YoY (up 31% to EUR3m) due to intensified launch activities ahead of
the FDA decision on talactoferrin approval this summer. All in all we expect a net
loss of EUR12.9m in Q1.
Cash position: At the end of March 2012, we forecast Agennix net cash position to
amount to EUR30.2m, translating a monthly burn rate of EUR3.5m
News flow: We would not expect significant news flow in the scope of the Q1
reporting. The company is likely to reiterate the time line it provided for the
FORTIS M phase III data publication (July/August). Potentially, further details on
the OASIS trial might be disclosed by the company. However, we would not expect
a clear decision on the next development step in severe sepsis to be made before
FORTIS M delivers its phase III results in NSCLC.
Conclusion & Action: We would not expect meaningful news flow in the Q1
reporting. Key to the investment case will be the upcoming FORTIS M phase III
data publication in July/August.
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