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Augusta Technologie AG
Germany/Electronic & Electrical Equipment Analyser
Augusta Technologie AG (Buy)
Buy
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 07/05/2012
Target price: EUR
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
23.61
28.00
ABE1.DE/ABE1 GR
Market capitalisation (EURm) 180
Current N° of shares (m) 8
Free float 70%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 23,568
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 23.78
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 13.01
Abs. perf. 1 mth 10.17%
Abs. perf. 3 mth 47.42%
Abs. perf. 12 mth 21.11%
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
Sales (m) 101 110 119
EBITDA (m) 19 19 21
EBITDA margin 18.7% 17.1% 17.7%
EBIT (m) 13 14 16
EBIT margin 12.8% 12.5% 13.2%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 6 12 13
ROCE 9.0% 10.6% 11.5%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (43) (48) (60)
Net Debt/Equity -0.3 -0.3 -0.4
Debt/EBITDA -2.2 -2.5 -2.9
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 14.2 16.7 20.3
EV/Sales 0.6 1.2 1.0
EV/EBITDA 3.3 6.8 5.8
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.5 6.8 5.8
EV/EBIT 4.8 9.3 7.7
P/E (adj.) 17.4 15.3 13.6
P/BV 0.8 1.2 1.1
OpFCF yield 39.2% 4.7% 5.2%
Dividend yield 2.5% 1.7% 1.9%
EPS (adj.) 0.83 1.54 1.73
BVPS 18.96 19.58 20.59
DPS 0.60 0.40 0.45
24 vvdsvdvsdy
22
20
18
16
14
12
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
Source: Factset
AUGUSTA TECHNOLOGIE CDAX (Rebased)
Shareholders: EQMC 10%; Own Shares 10%; DAH
Beteiligungsges. mbH 10%;
Analyst(s):
Adrian Pehl, CFA, Equinet Bank
adrian.pehl@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 58997 438
1Q12 preview
The facts: Augusta Technologie (ABE1) will report 1Q12 figures on Wednesday,
May 9, 2012.
Our analysis: Clearly, the figures will have limited impact on the share price as
ABE1 is in the process of being acquired by TKH. Nevertheless, it is important to
know whether the company’s 1Q12 can add confidence that FY12 targets
will be reached. The latter should be relevant for valuation statements as
part of the process. Our forecast for the quarter is as follows:
1Q12 preview
in EUR m 1Q12e 1Q11 yoy
Order intake 25.0 23.6 6%
Sales 24.5 24.3 1%
- thereof Sensors 8.5 8.0 6%
- thereof Vision 16.0 16.3 -2%
Adj. EBITDA 4.2 4.0 5%
EBITDA margin 17.1% 16.5% +60bp
- thereof Sensors 0.7 0.5 48%
EBITDA margin 8.2% 5.9% +230bp
- thereof Vision 4.5 4.8 -7%
EBITDA margin 28.1% 29.6% -150bp
- thereof Consolidation/Holding -1.0 -1.3 -23%
Rep. net result 2.3 3.2 -27%
Source: company data, equinet estimates
We expect management to reiterate the guidance: For the full year, ABE1
guides for sales of EUR 100-110m and an EBITDA of EUR 16-20m. Thus, 1Q12
should contribute at least c. 25% to the lower end of the aforementioned ranges.
In a yoy comparison, 1Q12 looks relatively weak, however, one has to take into
account that 1Q11 was exceptionally strong and the acquired LMI has to
compensate the missing top line contribution of P+S Technik that was accounted
at equity as of 4Q11. Overall, we would be very content once the quarter would be
released as outlined above.
We hope that the BaFin-approved offering document should be available just
before the AGM (May 16) providing the opportunity for official management
comments on the planned take over by TKH for EUR 23 per share (already
revised upwards from EUR 21). Although those comments should support the
deal, we would still not rule out a higher price at a later stage. Furthermore,
the proposed dividend of EUR 0.60 should be paid.
Conclusion & Action: We confirm our „Buy‟ rating and keep our PT of EUR 28.
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