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Epigenomics AG
Germany/Biotechnology Analyser
Epigenomics AG (Buy)
Buy
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 07/05/2012
Target price: EUR
Target Price unchanged
Reuters/Bloomberg
1.83
5.50
ECX.DE/ECX GR
Market capitalisation (EURm) 16
Current N° of shares (m) 9
Free float 61%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 15,618
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 8.10
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 1.21
Abs. perf. 1 mth -18.67%
Abs. perf. 3 mth -8.55%
Abs. perf. 12 mth -77.34%
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
Sales (m) 1 1 3
EBITDA (m) (11) (10) (8)
EBITDA margin nm nm nm
EBIT (m) (15) (10) (9)
EBIT margin nm nm nm
Net Profit (adj.)(m) (16) (10) (9)
ROCE -344.9% -234.7% -118.2%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (14) (4) 7
Net Debt/Equity -0.9 -0.7 -2.4
Debt/EBITDA 1.3 0.4 -0.8
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (149.8) high 199.0
EV/Sales nm 8.1 6.9
EV/EBITDA 0.2 nm nm
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 0.2 nm nm
EV/EBIT 0.2 nm nm
P/E (adj.) nm nm nm
P/BV 0.7 2.8 nm
OpFCF yield -79.4% -60.4% -54.8%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) (1.77) (1.18) (0.99)
BVPS 1.84 0.66 (0.32)
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
vvdsvdvsdy 8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12
Source: Factset
EPIGENOMICS AG Stoxx Biotechnology (Rebased)
Shareholders: Abingworth LLP 22%; Baker Brothers Life
Sciences Capital 5%; VCG 5%; Omega
4%; Gilbert Gerber 3%;
Analyst(s):
Edouard Aubery, Equinet Bank
edouard.aubery@equinet-ag.de
+49 69 5899 7439
Q1’12 preview
The facts: Epigenomics is due to release its Q1‟12 results on May 9. Our
expectations are as follow:
Our analysis:
EUR m Q1 2012e Q1 2011 % 2012e 2011 %
Sales 0,3 0,6 -53% 1,5 1,4 2%
EBIT -2,3 -2,7 -17% -10,4 -15,2 -32%
EBT -2,2 -2,9 -23% -10,4 -15,3 -32%
Net profit -2,2 -2,9 -23% -10,4 -15,6 -33%
net cash 11,6 23,5 -50% 4,0 14,0 -71%
Q1‟11 revenues and earnings developments: We forecast sales at EUR0.3m,
down from EUR0.6m due to declining revenues from licensing and royalty (ECX
signed the Qiagen agreement in Feb. 28 2011). On the cost side, we forecast
OPEX to be down by 18% YoY to EUR2.6m, primarily driven by reduces R&D
costs, reflecting the restructuring of the company announced last summer. All in
all, net loss should amount to EUR2.2m in Q1‟12, down 23% YoY.
Cash position and cash burn: According to our estimates, company‟s net cash
position should stand at EUR11.6m at the end of Q1‟11 which should translate into
EUR2.4m cash burn for the period.
News flow: We expect the company to reiterate that it should be able to deliver the
results of the head to head study (Epi proColon vs. FIT) by the end of Q4 this
year. Note that the company announced recently the initiation of the study (April
11). Our current expectations are the following: collection of the study samples
until Q3-Q4, submission of the PMA module 4 before year end, Advisory panel
meeting and FDA decision on the test approval in the US around mid-2013.
Conclusion & Action: Earning loss should come in down YoY, as a result of
company‟s restructuring. However beyond the figures, the most important aspect
for Epigenomics is that the filing process of Epi proColon in the US is unrolling
smoothly. Regarding that matter, the company should continue to look well on
track.
Page 53 of 80 European Securities Network
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Source: Epigenomics, equinet Research