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Session 1 - Montefiore

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42<br />

Responses to urban sprawl<br />

Box 9 Dresden and Prague: economic growth and new transport links<br />

German reunification and the collapse of the communist block led to changes in the economic regime from<br />

planned to market economy in both the former east Germany and the Czech Republic. Adaptation to the<br />

market economy caused many dramatic changes in traditional economic structures, such as a decrease in<br />

GDP and a high rate of unemployment, up to 25 % in Saxony. Towards the end of the 1990s, gradual but<br />

sustainable recovery of the economy commenced and political and social reforms took hold. These changes<br />

have created completely new driving forces for urban development. EU membership has also led to the<br />

growing engagement with European markets and access to EU development schemes e.g. TEN-T, ERDF,<br />

Cohesion Fund etc. For the new EU Member States (EU-10) gross domestic product is expected to triple and<br />

the number of households is projected to double between 2000 and 2030 (EEA, 2005). But in contrast to<br />

economic growth, the demographic trends for EU-10 show significant decreases of population, up to 7 % by<br />

2030 (EEA, 2005). It is clear that all the above-mentioned changes will have a strong impact on land use<br />

patterns in the area.<br />

Dresden–Prague: key driving forces for urban development<br />

1950s to 1990s 1990s to present<br />

Economy<br />

• Planning economy • Market economy<br />

• Emphasis on heavy industry and mining • Foreign (Czech Republic)/western German<br />

investments<br />

• Emphasis on modern high-tech industries,<br />

commerce and services<br />

• Construction boom<br />

Population/urbanisation<br />

• Slowing population growth since the 1970s • Decrease and ageing population<br />

• Migration to the cities due to industrialisation • Migration of rural population into the cities<br />

compensates natural decrease of population in<br />

cities<br />

• Emigration to western Europe for better jobs<br />

(Saxony)<br />

Housing and planning policy<br />

• Limited market for residential and land<br />

• Open market for residential and land properties<br />

properties<br />

• Land price was not considered in the planning • Private sector interests competing with public<br />

process, dominance of political decisions<br />

interests in the planning process<br />

• Construction of vast areas of block houses for • Low land prices outside cities and people's<br />

industry workers (especially the Czech Republic) preference to move to one-family houses<br />

Infrastructure<br />

• Emphasis on public transport and rail • Growing importance of motorways<br />

Future development paths: scenarios<br />

Business-as-usual: Extrapolates moderate 1990s trends of land use change, indicating that the land use<br />

patterns of the area will not change considerably over the next two decades.<br />

Built-up expansion: Elaborates the socio-economic projections of the European Environmental Agency.<br />

Motorway impact: Evaluates the impact of motorway development (A17/D8 part of TEN Corridor IV).<br />

Around Dresden new residential districts are situated adjacent to existing ones and lead to the merging<br />

together of former clusters. Construction of the new motorway around the city from west to south creates<br />

a new development axis for commercial and industrial areas. The simulation results for Prague show a very<br />

different, more clustered type of future development. The radial network of motorways connecting the<br />

city to different destinations attracts the development of commercial zones and produces more clustered<br />

patterns of growth. The municipalities located in the vicinity of Prague experience intensive residential<br />

development and hence it can be assumed that demand for new housing will remain strong.<br />

Urban sprawl in Europe

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