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Méthode de Monte Carlo. - Université du Maine

Méthode de Monte Carlo. - Université du Maine

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RÉDUCTION DE VARIANCE <br />

◮ CAS PROPORTIONNEL. Ainsi : σ2<br />

N − Var (ŶProp) = 1 N<br />

◮ OPTIMISATION.<br />

K∑<br />

p i (θ i − θ) 2 .<br />

i=1<br />

Var (ŶProp) − Var (ŶOpt) = 1 N<br />

K∑ (<br />

p j σj − ¯σ ) 2 .<br />

j=1<br />

◮ CONCLUSION.<br />

σ 2<br />

N = σ2<br />

N − Var (ŶProp) + Var (ŶProp) − Var (ŶOpt) + ¯σ2<br />

⎡<br />

⎤<br />

N<br />

= 1 K∑<br />

K∑<br />

⎣ p i (θ i − θ) 2 (<br />

+ p j σj − ¯σ ) 2 + ¯σ<br />

2⎦ .<br />

N<br />

i=1<br />

j=1<br />

A. Popier (Le Mans) Métho<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> <strong>Monte</strong> <strong>Carlo</strong>. 94 / 95

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