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2 nd International Non-Wood Products Symposium 8-10 September 2011 - Isparta/TURKEY Table 1: Terminal nodes of TRANWOOD richness model regression tree Node number Number of cases Deviance Predicted value 1 8 3.875 0.625 2 9 13.560 1.222 3 12 2.250 0.250 4 8 3.500 0.750 5 10 2.400 0.600 6 9 8.000 2.000 7 11 8.727 1.455 8 15 5.600 0.600 9 12 5.667 1.167 10 8 7.500 0.757 11 9 16.890 1.889 12 8 9.500 2.750 Notes: See Fig. 3 for a graphical comparison. Node numbers correspond to node numbers illustrated in Fig. 3 Fig.4. Spatial distribution model of TRANWOOD richness 243
2 nd International Non-Wood Products Symposium 8-10 September 2011 - Isparta/TURKEY 4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Numerous studies and projects have been concluded in the Yukarıgökdere forest district by Faculty of Forestry of Süleyman Demirel University since 1995. From ecological perspective, the first considerable study was carried out by Karatepe (2006). That study was related to ecological properties of Dog rosa (Rosa canina L.) being one of the most important trading non-wood products in the district. In that study, it was reported that altitude and aspect were the most important factors on the distribution of the species. The other study concluded in the district was about prediction of the potential distribution of Kasnak oak (Quercus vulcanina) under current situation and projected climate change. As a result of that study, It was found that a considerable shrink in potential distribution of Quercus vulcanica is likely according to A2 and B2 climate change scenarios (Özkan, 2010). Also a study was concluded concerning vegetation classification, finished in 2009, published 2011 and, altitude was found the most important factor on the distribution of vegetation communities. According to that study, It was revealed that the district can represent the Lakes district from ecological point of view because it includes almost all plant communities from the thermal Mediterranean communities to the mountain Mediterranean communities found in the Lakes district (Özkan ve Negiz, 2011). A considerable study was carried out by Fakir et. al (2009) as well. The researches revealed the ecological values of the district for a contribution to the functional planning of the district. According to the study, it was determined more than 60 endemic species with their locations in the district. Besides, locations of TRANWOOD species were given in that study. In spite of fact that the study includes valuable information from ecological point of view, information about geographical potential of those ecological values was incomplete. Because the most desirable information in functional planning is based on target variables’ potential distribution rather than their actual distribution. That is why the result of our study provides a considerable contribution for functional planning due to indication of potential distribution of TRANWOOD richness. Namely, on the context of community based management approach, to make a realistic and available functional planning on the behalf of establishing a balance between community and nature and, providing sustainability of the ecosystems, the lower site being between 900 m and 1250 m should be considered intended for trading nonwood products in the district. Being under protection, the Yukarıgökdere forest district is a small model representing the Lakes district from ecological point of view. That is why the district is a significant area in terms of scientific research, and particularly for the studies dealing with modelling of potential productivity and distribution of plant species or habitat suitability of wildlife animals. In this context, the provided TRANWOOD richness model obtained from this study can be applied to the other remaining areas of the Lakes district until more detail studies perform on the same topic. This model can be also applied to the digital outputs of the climate change scenarios. In this way, geographical distribution of TRANWOOD richness can be predicted under projected climate change and the strategies can be developed intended for the future of the forest ecosystems. REFERENCES Aertsen, W., Kint, V., Orshoven, J., Özkan, K., Muys, B., 2010. Comparison and ranking of different modelling techniques for prediction of site index in Mediterranean mountain forests, Ecological modelling 221, 1119-1130. Breiman, L., Friedman, J.H., Olshen, R.A., Stone, C.J., 1984. Classification and regression trees. Wadsworth International Group, Belmont, CA, USA. Büyükgebiz, T., Fakir, H., Negiz, M.G., 2008. Sütçüler (Isparta) Yöresinin Doğal Odun Dışı Bitkisel Orman Ürünleri ve Geleneksel Kullanımları, S.D.Ü. Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, Seri: A, Sayı: 1, Yıl: 2008, ISSN: 1302-7085, Sayfa: 109-120, Isparta Fakir, H., Gundogdu, E., Şenturk., O., 2009. Mapping of Fauna and Flora in Functional Planning based on Geographical information systems: A case study from Yukarıgökdere, Isparta, Turkey, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 18 (11):1992-1998. Hijmans, R.J., Cameron S.E., Parra J.L., Jones P.G., Jarvis A., 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas, International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965-1978. Karatepe, Y., 2006. Kuşburnu (Rosa Canina L.)'nun Eğirdir Gölü Havzası'ndaki Doğal Yayılış Alanlarına Ait Bazı Ekolojik Özellikler, 1. Uluslararası Odun Dışı Orman ürünleri sempozyumu. 1-4 Kasım 2006, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, Bildiriler Kitabı (CD) KTÜ Basım Evi, ISBN: 975-6983-49-3, s. 376-384, Trabzon. Mathsoft, 1997. S-PLUS 4 Guide to Statistics. MathSoft, Inc., Seattle, WA. 244
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