ISBN 9786054735846

N. ERSEN and İ. AKYÜZ/ ISEM2016 Alanya – Turkey
P artial A uto co rrelatio n Functio n fo r Im po rt
(w ith 5% signific ance limits for the pa rtia l a utocorrela tions)
1,0
Partial Autocorrelation
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
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L ag
16
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Figure 6. Partial autocorrelation graphic of stationarized import series
As a test results, ARIMA(3,1,0)(0,1,2)12 model which have smallest values of the error sum of
squares (SSE) and the mean square error (MSE) was determined as temporary model for both
export and import values of Bosnia and Herzegovina for wood and articles of wood, wood
charcoal. The results related to the model were given in Table 3 and 4. The suitability of models
were tested with Ljung-Box Q statistic and results shown in Table 5 and 6.
Table 3. Analysis results of ARIMA (3,1,0)(0,1,2) 12 model for export
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
AR(1) -0,251 0,1023 -2,45
AR(2) -0,074 0,107 -0,69
AR(3) 0,2464 0,1022 2,41
SMA(12) 0,5397 0,1066 5,06
SMA(24) 0,3528 0,1116 3,16
Number of observations 108
After differencing 95
The error sum of squares 0,945841
The mean square error 0,010509
Table 4. Analysis results of ARIMA (3,1,0)(0,1,2) 12 model for import
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
AR(1) -0,3234 0,1019 -3,17
AR(2) -0,0659 0,1072 -0,61
AR(3) 0,2847 0,0998 2,85
SMA(12) 0,422 0,1098 3,84
SMA(24) 0,4456 0,1134 3,93
Number of observations 108
968