HANSA 01-2020

Schifffahrt | Shipping
tivity in 2019. These factors should be
partly offset by lower optimal operating
speeds for ships due to higher costs
associated with low-sulphur fuel usage
following the implementation of IMO
2020,« the agency’s report says. Vessels
with a combined capacity of more than
45 mill.DWT are scheduled to be delivered
in 2020, up from about 30 mill.DWT
in 2019, according to data from Clarksons
Research. The uptrend in rate of vessels
being out-of-service for scrubber fittings
in 2019 should also reverse next year.
But BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst,
Peter Sand, warned in a recent dry bulk
market report: »The fundamental balance
in the market has worsened in 2019 with
supply growth outpacing that of demand.
He expects this to continue into 2020.
»This will do nothing to help shipowners
pass on the additional costs of the looming
IMO 2020 sulphur cap, which is set to
add even more pressure to already struggling
bottom lines«, he said.
»BDI could jump by 15%-20%«
Meanwhile, Fitch stands by its quite bearish
outlook: »We expect freight rates to
rise in 2020, driven by improved supply/demand
balance and an increase in
fuel cost. We think the Baltic Dry Index,
based on time-charter rate average for
various vessel sizes, could jump by 15%-
20% in 2020, after remaining fairly flat in
2019 when supply growth has outpaced
demand.«
While there has been a significant recovery
in the Baltic Dry Index in the second
half of 2019, the agency expects rates
in 2020 to be less volatile for the year as
a whole. The increase in annual average
and relative stability in 2020 should be
similar to the trend seen in 2018, when
both trade volume and fleet capacity grew
by 3%. An 18% increase in the annual
BDI average in 2018 had followed a 70%
jump in 2017 and a recovery from historic
lows in 1Q16.
Bull or bear? That seems to remain the
question for the year ahead. fs
© Selzer
HANSA International Maritime Journal 01 | 2020
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