Addendum with evidence (8.2 MB) - Accreditation - Bakersfield ...

Current Comparison of Key Economic Indicators
Year Population Per Capita Median HH
2011(f) Growth Rate Unemployment Income Income
State 0.70% 12.2 $28,652 $62,657
Kern County 1.37% 15.7 $18,977 $45,901
Source: ESRI Data Systems; California Department of Finance; Employment Development, LMI
Note: Data for 2011 is forecast ahead of the actual close of the 2011 year.
Looking ahead, Kern County is expected to be one of the first counties in the State to
recover from the great recession. However, it will take time to gain the ground lost over the past
three years. The forecast for the future includes the following highlights:
• Non-farm job growth is expected to increase 1.5 % in 2011. Total wage and salary job
growth is expected to average 2.5 % per year between 2011 and 2016.
• Average salaries adjusted for inflation are well below the California state average, and will
remain so over the forecast period. Real salaries are projected to increase an average of 0.6%
per year from 2011 to 2016.
• Over the next five years, total employment is expected to rise more than 13%. Professional
and Business Services, Construction, Wholesale Trade, and Transportation Warehousing
and Utilities are forecast to grow by over 20%. Together these sectors will create nearly
17,000 jobs, or 47% of all new jobs.
• Total taxable sales, adjusted for inflation, are expected to increase by an average of 3.9% per
year between 2011and 2016.
• Industrial production is expected to increase 3.0% in 2011. From 2011 to 2016, the growth
rate of industrial production is expected to average 2.6% per year. Farm production is
forecast to increase by 0.4% per year between 2011 and 2016.
Summary: On the strengths of its economic diversity and strong agriculture and oil
industries, Kern County is poised to emerge from the great recession faster than most other counties
in California. The greater Bakersfield hub will play a key role in this recovery. Farm jobs and
production will generate moderate growth relative to employment; the greatest relative growth will
be non-farm employment. Unemployment overall will continue to be in the double digits until 2015.
The housing market will improve but only marginally. While the recovery for Kern County will be
faster than most, there is still a great deal of lost ground to regain.
Implications for Bakersfield College (including the Delano Campus and Weill Center):
• The county’s rate of unemployment will remain high. This impact of high unemployment
will be felt less in the Bakersfield area and more in the outlying areas. High unemployment
historically has translated into greater demand for postsecondary education.
• Housing starts will increase slowly through 2012; new construction will see improvement but
the housing market will remain distressed until the masses of foreclosed properties and toxic
mortgages are abated. This has the capacity to stifle the county’s economy, undercut
consumer confidence and limit financial resources for the College.
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