Addendum with evidence (8.2 MB) - Accreditation - Bakersfield ...

The California Department of Finance projects an annual .11% increase in number of high
school graduates between 2009-10 and 2020-2021 in Kern County. As illustrated in the graphic
below, a gradual increase is expected between 2016-17 and 2020-2021.
Kern County, Expected Growth in Numbers of High School Graduates
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate
Projections by County, 2011 Series. Sacramento, California, October 2011.
Implications for Bakersfield College:
• The rate of population growth will be the College’s strongest point for going forward. The
County is projected annually to grow at 1.37%. There will be many new residents who are
not familiar with the College and should be reached with a marketing message. From 2011
to 2016 net migration will rise as, on average, 7,900 net migrants per year are projected to
enter the county during this period.
• Residents have modest incomes and will have to sacrifice in order to attend college.
• The very modest increase in high school graduates suggests there will not be ever growing
numbers of very young adults to accommodate at the College, but there will be a steady
stream of younger students.
• The educational attainment percentages among adults 25 years or older indicates that 57% of
these adults are candidates for postsecondary education.
Key Cities
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A review of fall term College headcount data from 2006 to 2011 reveals that two cities
dominate the unduplicated student headcounts on average for each fall term. As expected, the City
of Bakersfield contributed the most. Combined, these cities account for 83% of the total fall
headcounts.
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