Addendum with evidence (8.2 MB) - Accreditation - Bakersfield ...

Key Planning Assumptions and Strategic Priorities for the Future
Key Planning Assumptions
These planning assumptions are statements of environmental factors that will affect the way in which
the College is able to work toward fulfilling its mission and achieving its goals.
1. Increasing Need Demand for Bakersfield College courses and programs will increase across its
entire service area as evidenced by strong population growth, labor market workforce projections,
and economic development challenges.
The Bakersfield College Service area comprises 74 percent of the population of Kern County, which
has grown steadily since 2000 at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent according to the Kern
County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau, 2010. Based upon the QuickFacts estimate for
Kern County, the College’s service area population estimate for 2010, was 615,039 persons. In
2010, the majority ethnic group of Kern County was Hispanic (49 percent), followed by White (39
percent), African-American (6 percent), Asian-Pacific Islanders (4 percent), and American Indian
(nearly 2 percent).
Kern County is becoming more ethnically diverse. The White majority is aging rapidly and
Hispanic ethnic groups less than 18 years of age became the majority of the youth of the county in
2001. Projections from the California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit
indicate that Hispanics will become the majority ethnic group in 2018. Projections also indicate
that African American, American Indian, and Asian-Pacific Islander ethnic groups will increase
steadily in number and maintain their share of the county’s population at 6 percent, 2 percent, and
4 percent respectively.
The local labor market will demand increasing numbers and proportions of workers with postsecondary
training at the associate degree and certificate level that is less than a bachelor’s degree.
According to the State of California Employment Development Department 2006-2016 Kern
County Projection Highlights, the forecast for total employment is 347,400 in Kern County by
2016. The increase represents a gain of 44,600 jobs and a growth rate of 14.7 percent over the tenyear
period. This rate is slightly above the statewide growth rate estimate of 14.6 percent for
California during same forecast period.
The Professional and Business Services sector will generate an estimated 7,100, the largest number
of new jobs for the 2006-2016 outlook period. An estimated 16,000 new jobs will occur in the
Education, Health Care and Social Assistance, Government, and Farm sectors. The fastest
growing nonfarm industry sector is Professional and Business Services with an annual average
growth rate of 2.8 percent. Other major industry sectors with significant growth rates are Wholesale
Trade (2.4 percent), Education, Health Care and Social Assistance (2 percent) and Leisure and
Hospitality (1.8 percent). Manufacturing, Government, Construction and Other Services will grow
at rates below the average annual growth rate for the county’s nonfarm employment.
A recent Kern County labor market assessment prepared for the Kern Economic Development
Corporation identified multiple challenges with regard to the area’s future economic development.
A number of these challenges quoted directly from the labor market assessment below, specifically
identify needs for the Kern Community College District and Bakersfield College to address.
• Educational levels in Kern County are below the state and national figures. ….
• Some skills are not available for the local workforce or are difficult to recruit or retain. These
include maintenance mechanics/electricians, clerical workers with advanced computer skills,
experienced inbound call center representatives, field workers, and experienced maintenance
workers. …
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