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get rearrested. Age was also a sigmficant predictor of rearrest, with older inmates showing a
lower likelihood of rearrest. In both types of analyses (all discharges v. successfd discharges
only), the program effect of TC was non-simcant.
We also examined whether the effects of TC varied by institution, since some differences
in TC implementation were observed at the five institutions. We entered a categorical variable that
reflected the effect of the institutional setting (see Model 2 in Tables 21 and 22). None of these
institutional effects were statistically significant, suggesting that the impact of TC on rearrest was
invariant across the five institutions.
Finally, we estimated rearrest rates using predicted probabilities fiom logistic regression
equations (see Figure 4). TC resulted in a slightly lower probability of rearrest (11% v. 14%),
e
with results adjusted for the effects of control variables. Although the difference between the TC
and Comparison groups was not statistically significant, the log-odds ratios reported in Tables 21
and 22 show that Comparison group inmates were 1.3 - 1.4 times as likely as TC inmates to be
rearrested when the effects of all other variables were statistically controlled.
Patterns of survival and risk (hazard) for rearrest can be seen in Table 23. For the
Comparison group, there was a sizeable drop in cumulative survival from 90% to 81% between
six to 9 months following release fiom prison. Cumulative survival dropped again at the 9-month
interval to 62%, and again at the 15-month interval, where it declined precipitously fiom 62% to
43%. Again, the 15-month interval appears to be a particularly high-risk interval, although the
addition of further cases will help clari@ survival patterns over time. The hazard hction shown
in Figure 5 reveals the survival advantage enjoyed by TC inmates after 12 months.
106
This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not
been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice.