RenewableS 2013 GlObal STaTUS RePORT - REN21

ENDNOTES 01 GlObal MaRkET aNd INduSTRy OvERvIEw
Global Market and Industry Overview
1 Estimated shares based on the following sources: total 2010 final
energy demand (estimated at 8,076 Mtoe) is based on 7,881 Mtoe
for 2010 from International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy
Statistics 2012 (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2012) and escalated by the
2.48% increase in global primary energy demand from 2010 to
2011, derived from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2012
(London: 2012). The figure differs conceptually from estimates in
previous editions of the GSR in that total final consumption now
excludes non-energy use of fossil fuels. The total final energy
demand is about 9.2% smaller than total final consumption, thus
making the share of renewables (and nuclear power) proportionately
larger. Traditional biomass use in 2010 was estimated at 751
Mtoe (31.4 EJ), and this value was used for 2011 as well, from
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris: 2012), p. 216. In 2011, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated a
higher range for traditional biomass of 37–43 EJ, and a proportionately
lower figure for modern biomass use, per O. Edenhofer
et al., eds. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Resources
and Climate Change Mitigation, prepared by Working Group III
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge,
U.K. and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011), Table
2.1. Bio-heat energy values for 2011 (industrial, residential,
commercial, and other uses, including heat from heat plants) was
estimated at 305 Mtoe (12.7 EJ), based on preliminary estimates
from IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013
(Paris: OECD/IEA, forthcoming 2013). Bio-power generation was
estimated at 28 Mtoe (324 TWh), based on 74 GW of capacity
in 2011 (see Reference Table R1) and a capacity factor of 50%,
which was based on the average capacity factors (CF) of biomass
generating plants in the United States (49.3% CF based on data
from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power
Annual 2010 (Washington, DC: 2011), Table 1.2, (Existing Capacity
by Energy Source, 2010)) and in the European Union (52% CF
based on data in Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands/
European Environment Agency, Renewable Energy Projections as
Published in the National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the
European Member States (Petten, The Netherlands: 28 November
2011)). Applying a five-year growth rate to the 2010 value found in
IEA, World Energy Statistics 2012, op. cit. this note, would yield a
lower estimate of 293 TWh. Other renewable electricity generation
estimates include: wind power was 45 Mtoe (522 TWh), based
on global capacity of 238.5 GW using a CF of 25%; solar PV was
estimated at 6.7 Mtoe (78 TWh), based on 70.8 GW capacity and
average CF of 12.5%; concentrated solar thermal power (CSP)
was 0.3 Mtoe (4 TWh), based on 1.6 GW capacity and CF of 25%;
and ocean power was 0.1 Mtoe (1.2 TWh), based on 527 MW
capacity and CF of 25%. (For 2011 year-end operating capacities
for wind, solar PV, CSP, and ocean power, see Reference Table R1;
for capacity factors see Table 2 on Status of Renewable Energy
Technologies: Characteristics and Costs.) Geothermal was 6.0
Mtoe (70 TWh), based on estimated capacity of 11.35 GW from
global inventory of geothermal power plants by Geothermal Energy
Association (GEA) (unpublished database), per Benjamin Matek,
GEA, personal communication with REN21, May 2013. Generation
based on the global average capacity factor for geothermal
generating capacity in 2010 (70.44%), derived from 2010 global
capacity (10,898 MW) and 2010 global generation (67,246 GWh),
see Ruggero Bertani, “Geothermal Power Generation in the
World, 2005–2010 Update Report,” Geothermics, vol. 41 (2012),
pp. 1–29; hydropower was assumed to contribute 301 Mtoe
(3,498 TWh), per BP, op. cit. this note. Solar thermal hot water/
heat output in 2011 was estimated at 17.8 Mtoe (0.74 EJ), based
on Werner Weiss and Franz Mauthner, Solar Heat Worldwide:
Markets and Contribution to the Energy Supply 2011, Edition 2013
(Gleisdorf: Austria: IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Programme,
May 2013). Adjusted upwards by REN21 to account for 100% of
the world market, as the Weiss and Mauthner report covers an
estimated 95%. Geothermal heat was estimated at 11.7 Mtoe
(0.49 EJ), assuming 57.8 GW th
of capacity yielding 489 PJ of heat,
based on estimated growth rates and 2010 capacity and output
figures from John W. Lund, Derek H. Freeston, and Tonya L.
Boyd, “Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy: 2010 Worldwide
Review,” in Proceedings of the World Geothermal Congress 2010,
Bali, Indonesia, 25–29 April 2010; updates from John Lund,
Geo-Heat Center, Oregon Institute of Technology, personal
communication with REN21, March, April, and June 2011. For
liquid biofuels, ethanol use was estimated at 44.6 Mtoe (1.87 EJ)
and biodiesel use at 18.5 Mtoe (0.77 EJ), based on 84.2 billion
litres and 22.4 billion litres, respectively, from F.O. Licht, “Fuel
Ethanol: World Production, by Country (1000 cubic metres),”
2013, and from F.O. Licht, “Biodiesel: World Production, by
Country (1000 T),” 2013; and conversion factors from Oak Ridge
National Laboratory, found at https://bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/
misc/energy_conv.html. Nuclear power generation was assumed
to contribute 228 Mtoe (2,649 TWh) of final energy, from BP, op.
cit. this note.
2 Ibid. Figure 1 based on sources in Endnote 1.
3 Based on data found in REN21, Renewables Global Status Report
(Paris: various years), and in IEA, World Energy Outlook 2012, op.
cit. note 1.
4 Based on 9,443 MW in operation at the end of 2007, from
European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Market Report
2012 (Brussels: February 2013), and on 100 GW at the end of
2012. See relevant section and endnotes for more details regarding
2012 data and sources.
5 CSP based on 430 MW in operation at the end of 2007, from Fred
Morse, Abengoa Solar, personal communication with REN21, 4
May 2012, and from Red Eléctrica de España (REE), “Potencia
Instalada Peninsular (MW),” https://www.ree.es/ingles/sistema_
electrico/series_estadisticas.asp, updated 29 April 2013, and
on about 2,550 MW at the end of 2012. Wind power based on
24.9% from Navigant’s BTM Consult, International Wind Energy
Development: World Market Update 2012 (Copenhagen: March
2013), and data for 2007 and 2012 from Global Wind Energy
Council (GWEC), Global Wind Report – Annual Market Update
2012 (Brussels: April 2013). See relevant section and endnotes
in Market and Industry Trends by Technology for more details
regarding 2012 data and sources.
6 Hydropower based on an estimated 840–870 MW in operation
at the end of 2007 from REN21, Renewables Global Status Report
2009 Update (Paris: 2009), and on 990 GW at the end of 2012.
The GSR 2009 puts total hydropower capacity in 2008 at 945
GW, with 31–38 GW added during 2008, meaning an estimated
914–907 GW at the end of 2007; however, this includes pumped
storage capacity, for which an adjustment has been made.
Hydropower 3% average annual growth also from Observ’ER,
“Electricity Production in the World: General Forecasts,” Chapter
1 in Worldwide Electricity Production from Renewable Energy
Sources: Stats and Figures Series, 2012 edition (Paris: 2012).
Geothermal based on 9.6 GW in operation at the end of 2007, from
REN21, op. cit. this note, and 11.65 GW at the end of 2012 based
on global inventory of geothermal power plants compiled by GEA,
op. cit. note 1. See relevant sections and endnotes in Market and
Industry Trends by Technology for more details regarding 2012
data and sources. Figure 2 based on data and sources provided
in Endnotes 4–6 and 8 in this section, and from F.O. Licht, op. cit.
note 1, both references.
7 Figure of 7.8% average annual growth is based on global biopower
capacity for the period end-2005 through 2010, the latest
data available from U.S. EIA, “International Energy Statistics,”
www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm, viewed 23 May
2013.
8 Glazed solar water heaters based on 123.8 GW th
capacity in operation
at the end of 2007 and an estimated 255 GW th
at the end of
2012, from IEA, SHC Solar Heat Worldwide Reports (Gleisdorf,
Austria: 2005–2013 editions), revised figures based on long-term
recordings from AEE – Institute for Sustainable Technologies
(AEE-INTEC), supplied by Franz Mauthner, 18 April 2013, and
adjusted by REN21 from 95% of world market to 100%; groundsource
heat pumps from Lund, Freeston, and Boyd, op. cit. note 1.
See relevant sections and endnotes in Market and Industry Trends
by Technology for more details regarding 2012 data and sources,
particularly for bio-heat.
9 Based on “World Pellets Map,” Bioenergy International Magazine,
Stockholm, 2013; M. Cocchi et al., Global Wood Pellet Industry and
Market Study (Paris: IEA Bioenergy Task 40, 2011); Eurostat database,
Data explorer - EU27 trade since 1995 by CN8 (Brussels:
2013), at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database;
C.S. Goh et al., “Wood pellet market and
trade: a global perspective,” Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining,
vol. 7 (2013), pp. 24–42; P. Lamers et al., “Developments in
international solid biofuel trade – an analysis of volumes, policies,
and market factors,” Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews,
vol. 16 (2012), pp. 3176–99.
10 F.O. Licht, op. cit. note 1, both references.
11 See, for example, MERCOM Capital Group, “With Chronic Power
Shortages and 400 Million without Power, India Losing Sight of Big
Picture with Solar Anti-Dumping Case,” Market Intelligence Report
134